心脏移植术后感染的危险因素分析及风险预测模型构建  

Risk factor analysis and risk prediction model construction for post-operative infection after heart transplantation

作　　者：任珍平 郭琳[1] 陈健超[1] 浮志坤[1] 刘云霏 REN Zhenping;GUO Lin;CHEN Jianchao;FU Zhikun;LIU Yunfei(Heart Transplant Centre,the Seventh People’s Hospital of Zhengzhou,Zhengzhou 450016,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州市第七人民医院心脏移植中心,郑州450016

出　　处：《上海医药》2023年第9期41-44,共4页Shanghai Medical & Pharmaceutical Journal

基　　金：河南省医学科技攻关计划联合共建项目(LHGJ20191120)。

摘　　要：目的:分析探讨心脏移植术后患者发生感染的危险因素。方法:回顾性分析50例行心脏移植手术患者的病历资料,将他们分为感染组(n=25)和非感染组(n=25),比较两组患者相关指标的差异,通过logistic回归分析明确患者心脏移植术后发生感染的危险因素,并建立风险预测模型。结果:logistic回归分析显示,术后深静脉置管时间、术后桡动脉置管时间、术后胸腔引流管置管时间、术后心包引流管置管时间、术后胃管置管时间、术后尿管置管时间、术后ICU时间等均为心脏移植术后患者发生感染的危险因素。应用ROC曲线对风险预测模型价值进行分析,R≥15.5患者心脏移植术后发生感染的比例显著高于R<15.5患者。结论:本研究所建心脏移植术后感染风险预测模型对评估心脏移植患者术后感染有一定的预测价值。Objective:To analyze and explore the risk factors for the occurrence of infection in patients with heart transplantation.Methods:The medical records of 50 patients undergoing heart transplantation were retrospectively analyzed,and the patients were divided into infected(n=25)and non-infected(n=25)groups.The differences in relevant indicators were compared between the two groups,and the risk factors for patients to develop infection after heart transplantation were clarified by logistic regression analysis,and a risk prediction model was established.Results:The logistic regression analysis showed that the times for deep vein placement,radial artery placement,chest drain placement,pericardial drain placement,gastric tube placement,urinary catheter placement and ICU stay after surgery were all risk factors for the occurrence of infection in patients with heart transplantation.The incidence of infection after heart transplantation was significantly higher in patients with R≥15.5 than R<15.5 when the ROC curve was used to analyze the value of the risk prediction model.Conclusion:The risk prediction model established in this study has some predictive value in assessing postoperative infection in heart transplant patients.

关 键 词：心脏移植 术后感染 危险因素 风险预测模型 

分 类 号：R619.3[医药卫生—外科学] R654.2[医药卫生—临床医学]