俄欧天然气关系转变对国际液化天然气贸易的潜在影响  

Potential impact of the shift in Russia-EU gas relations on international LNG trade

作　　者：郑洪弢 熊欣 赫荣儒 ZHENG Hongtao;XIONG Xin;HE Rongru(ENN Natural Gas Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]新奥天然气股份有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第3期67-75,111,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：乌克兰危机发生后,欧洲迅速提出了摆脱对俄罗斯天然气依赖的长期战略,同时制定了相应措施。2022年,欧洲自俄罗斯进口管道气数量大幅下降,转而由进口LNG弥补,加重了国际LNG供需紧平衡的态势。在全球LNG供应增量有限的情况下,欧洲只能利用高价吸引原本流向亚洲的LNG转向欧洲,二者竞争导致全球天然气价格上涨,同时形成国际LNG贸易的全新格局。欧亚同时争夺的货物会成为全球LNG价格的锚定物。未来几年全球天然气市场仍将保持“高价格、高波动”态势。为了保证中国天然气产业健康发展,建议加快国内天然气增产速度,加快进口天然气管道和储气库建设,加快推进LNG期货上市以及天然气产业数智化转型,增强中国天然气产业整体实力以应对未来市场挑战。After the Ukraine issue,Europe quickly proposed a long-term strategy to get rid of its dependence on Russian gas and developing corresponding measures.In 2022,Europe's pipeline gas imports from Russia dropped significantly and were instead compensated by imported LNG,aggravating the tight balance of international LNG supply and demand.With limited incremental global LNG supply,Europe can only use high prices to attract LNG that would otherwise flow to Asia to Europe,and the competition between the two leads to higher global gas prices,while creating a whole new pattern of international LNG trade.Goods contested by Europe and Asia at the same time will become the anchor of global LNG prices.The global natural gas market will remain“high priced and volatile”in the coming years.In order to ensure the healthy development of China's natural gas industry,it is recommended to accelerate the rate of increasing domestic natural gas production,speed up the construction of imported natural gas pipelines and storages,promote the listing of LNG futures and the transformation of the natural gas industry into a digital intelligence,and enhance the overall strength of China's natural gas industry to meet future market challenges.

关 键 词：欧洲 俄罗斯 天然气贸易 天然气价格 管道天然气 液化天然气 LNG 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746