非线性时变增益模型在辽西地区水文模拟的应用分析  

Applicability Analysis of Nonlinear Time-varying Gain Model in Hydrological Simulation in Western Liaoning Province

作　　者：刘阳 Liu Yang(Liaoning Provincial River Reservoir Management Service Center(Liaoning Provincial Hydrologial Bureau),Shenyang 110003,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省河库管理服务中心(辽宁省水文局),沈阳110003

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2023年第4期114-117,共4页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划:大范围干旱监测与灾害风险防范技术和示范(2017YFC1502401)。

摘　　要：辽西地区由于近些年来水土保持治理措施,流域下垫面条件尤其是土壤蓄水能力得到改善,传统单一线性产流模型已不太适应于辽西地区的水文模拟。为此引入非线性时变增益模型,结合辽西地区叶柏寿和东白城子两个水文站实测场次洪水数据,对其模型精度进行验证。结果表明:相比于传统单一线性模型,非线性时变增益模型下两个水文站实测场次洪水预测合格率分别提高20%和30%。研究成果对于辽西地区洪水预报方案制定具有重要参考价值。Due to the soil and water conservation control measures in recent years,the underlying surface conditions of the basin,especially the soil water storage capacity,have been improved in the western Liaoning region,and the traditional single linear runoff generation model is not suitable for the hydrological simulation in the western Liaoning region.Therefore,the nonlinear time-varying gain model is introduced,and the accuracy of the model is verified by combining the measured flood data of Yebaishou and Dongbaichengzi hydrological stations in western Liaoning.The results show that compared with the traditional single linear model,the qualified rate of flood prediction of the two hydrological stations under the nonlinear time-varying gain model is increased by 20% and 30% respectively.The research results have important reference value for the formulation of flood forecasting scheme in western Liaoning.

关 键 词：非线性时变增益模型 水文模拟 适用性分析 辽西地区 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]