全球炼油化工产业发展新态势及启示  

New development trend and enlightenment of global refining and chemical industry

作　　者：徐海丰[1,2] 王婧 XU Haifeng;WANG Jing(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油集团油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第4期37-45,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：截至2022年末,全球炼油能力达到51.2亿吨/年,乙烯产能规模达到2.2亿吨/年,全球炼化产能规模快速扩张并加快向东半球集中。全球炼油产品与化工品需求前景分化,油品需求逐渐转弱,化工品需求将成为未来石油需求增长的主要驱动力。全球化工产业利润疲弱,高端化工产品和材料利润较为稳定并保持在较高水平。地缘冲突引发全球炼化产品贸易流向重塑。全球炼化行业低碳发展和转型升级加快。随着油品需求逐渐萎缩,部分炼油产能未来将面临风险;全球基础化工品供大于求显现,对行业带来负面效应;碳排放权交易价格上升将显著提高炼化企业成本。中国炼化行业应加快行业调整和转型升级,降低成本,拓宽出口渠道,打造更高附加值的炼化产业链,构建新型现代炼化体系,推进炼化产业高质量发展。By the end of 2022,global refining capacity reached 5.12 billion tons/year and ethylene capacity scale reached 220 million tons/year,with global refining and chemical capacity scale expanded rapidly and accelerated to the Eastern Hemisphere concentration.The global demand outlook for refined products and chemicals diverged,with gradually weaker oil demand and chemicals demand becoming the main driver of oil demand growth in the future.Global chemical industry profits were weak,while profits of high-end chemical products and materials were more stable and remain at a high level.Geopolitical conflicts have triggered a reshaping of global trade flows of refined products;low-carbon development and transformation upgrading of the global refining and chemical industry accelerated.As the demand of oil products gradually shrinks,some refining capacity will be at risk in the future.The global supply of basic chemicals exceeds demand,bringing negative effects on the industry and the rising price of carbon emission trading will significantly increase the cost of refining enterprises.China's refining and chemical industry should accelerate industry adjustment and transformation upgrading,reduce costs,broaden export channels,reshape a higher value-added refining and chemical industry chain,build a new modern refining and chemical system,and promote high-quality development of the refining and chemical industry.

关 键 词：炼化产业 炼油能力 油品需求 化工品需求 低碳转型 

分 类 号：F416.7[经济管理—产业经济]