后疫情时期中国航空煤油市场预测  

Forecast of China's jet fuel market in the post-pandemic period

作　　者：罗艳托[1] 胡爱君[1] 仇玄[1] 丁少恒[1] LUO Yantuo;HU Aijun;QIU Xuan;DING Shaoheng(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第4期67-72,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：三年新冠病毒疫情接近尾声,防控措施在国务院联防联控机制发布的两个通知下落幕。疫情及管控措施对中国航空业产生重大影响:民航运输总周转量高台跳水式陡降;客运大幅下降,货运逆市大增;国内航线运输周转量震荡坚挺,国际航线持续低迷;航煤供需大幅萎缩,进出口量总体下降;月度消费量宽幅震荡,航线消费量表现各异。后疫情时期,疫情的长尾效应依然存在,国际航线恢复面临国家间博弈的压力,国内航线恢复面临高铁的激烈竞争。综合这些因素,预测2023年中国航煤需求恢复至疫情暴发前水平的80%以上,2024年恢复至疫情暴发前2019年的消费水平。中长期看,随着航空新能源的探索试点和商业化应用,航煤需求峰值将提前5年到来,峰值较无疫情情景下降1000万吨左右。As the three-year Covid-19 pandemic draws to a close,the prevention and control measures have come to an end in the notices issued by the State Council's joint prevention and control mechanism.The pandemic and its control measures have had a significant impact on China's aviation industry.The total civil aviation transportation turnover has fallen steeply by a high dive,passenger transportation has fallen sharply while cargo has increased sharply against the market,domestic airline transportation turnover has been shaking and firm while international airlines have remained in the doldrums,jet fuel supply and demand have shrunk sharply and the overall import and export volume has fallen,and monthly consumption fluctuates widely and airline consumption has performed differently.In the post-pandemic period,the long-tail effect of the pandemic still exists,the recovery of international routes faces the pressure of inter-state games,and the recovery of domestic routes faces fierce competition from high-speed rail.Combining these factors,China's jet coal demand is forecast to recover to more than 80% of the pre-pandemic level in 2023 and to the pre-pandemic 2019 consumption level in 2024.In the medium to long term,with the exploration of new energy pilot and commercial application for aviation,the peak demand for jet fuel will come 5 years earlier,with the peak dropping by about 10 million tons compared to the no pandemic scenario.

关 键 词：新冠病毒疫情 航空煤油市场 需求 新能源 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济] F426.22