经济政策不确定性能够促进工业智能化投资吗——来自中国省级工业机器人进口数据的经验证据  

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Promote Intelligent Investment?Empirical Evidence from Provincial Industrial Robot Import Data in China

作　　者：黄孝武[1] 焦骜 Huang Xiaowu;Jiao Ao(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2023年第10期110-120,共11页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BJL023)。

摘　　要：与一般性投资相比,企业智能化投资往往面临更高风险。以我国省级机器人进口数量作为企业智能化投资的代理变量,利用不确定性增长期权理论,实证检验经济政策不确定性对企业智能化投资的促进作用。结果表明,当经济政策不确定性增加时,工业机器人进口规模显著扩大。异质性研究表明,在创新环境更优越(财政科技支出更高、专利申请授权数更多、发明型专利占比更高)、产业结构中汽车和计算机产出占比更高、全球价值链前向嵌入度更低的地区,这种促进作用更加显著。通过替换主要变量、考虑不同经济周期阶段等稳健性检验,结论依然成立。进一步研究表明,经济政策不确定性增加时,企业转换成本降低,增长期权价值提高,企业投资工业机器人的动机增强。因此,智能化投资是企业应对经济政策不确定性的重要手段,进一步改善区域创新环境、优化产业结构更有利于企业增加智能化投资。Compared with general investment,intelligent investment often faces greater risks in a world with increasing uncertainties.According to the real option theory,if the uncertainty of revenue expectation increases,the enterprise will decrease its investment.However,according to growth option theory,under uncertain conditions,the cost of immediate investment is likely to be lower so that increasing investment might be profitable for enterprises.For intelligent investment with high technology and broad market prospects,the enterprise will consider more about investment cost and revenue expectations while making the decision to increase investment.When the economic uncertainty increases,it is more likely to make intelligent investment.Industrial robot is the core equipment of manufacturing,especially intelligent manufacturing.The application of the industrial robot reflects the national development and competitiveness of manufacturing industry.China has become the largest market of industrial robot in the world.The investment on industrial robot has obvious characteristics of intelligent investment.Therefore,this paper takes it as the agent variable of industrial intelligent investment to study the effect of economic policy uncertainty on industrial intelligent investment.Using the monthly import data of industrial robot of various provinces and cities,this paper discusses the effect of economic policy uncertainty on intelligent investment.The data about industrial robot import is from China Commodity Trade Database of EPS(Express Professional Superior),which provides monthly data of industrial robot import by province from China Customs.The key explanatory variable is China's economic policy uncertainty.The monthly EPU Index of China is used to measure the uncertainty faced by enterprises.To avoid spurious regression,the study first performs robustness tests by IPS and PP-Fisher which are used for panel unit root test.Then it makes a fixed effect regression with the data.The results show that the import of industrial

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 增长期权理论 智能化投资 

分 类 号：F403.5[经济管理—产业经济]