华南登陆台风降水不对称性及持续性问题  

Problems in Asymmetry and Sustainability of Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China

作　　者：黄燕燕[1] 蒙伟光[1] 冯业荣[1] 张诚忠[1] 陈德辉 郑彬[1] HUANG Yanyan;MENG Weiguang;FENG Yerong;ZHANG Chengzhong;CHEN Dehui;ZHENG Bin(Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,CMA,Guangzhou 510080;National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州510080 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2023年第4期385-399,共15页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2022A1515011870、2021A1515011399);国家自然科学基金项目(41705089、U1811464);广东省水利科技创新项目(2022-01)共同资助。

摘　　要：针对登陆华南台风降水及模式预报存在的突出问题,就当前关于登陆台风降水分布的不对称性及台风登陆后期持续性暴雨发生机理的研究状况进行回顾和分析,提出了需要深入研究的相关科学问题及模式预报技术改进的应对措施,为促进登陆华南台风暴雨预报工作和效果的不断改进提供参考。分析指出环境风场垂直切变、低层气团边界(如冷池边界)、干冷空气侵入、中尺度对流系统以及地形等是造成登陆华南台风降水不对称分布的重要影响因素。台风登陆后期华南发生的持续性暴雨往往与季风活动增强相关,活跃的西南季风为强降水中尺度对流系统(MCSs)发展提供有利条件,MCSs通过潜热加热反馈于大尺度环流,可使台风涡旋环流和西南季风得以维持并致使MCSs反复发生发展、暴雨持续。开展相关科学问题的深入研究,有针对性地考察评估目前模式的预报性能并提出有效改进方案,是进一步提高模式预报效果的重要途径。In view of the prominent problems in the precipitation and model forecasts of the landfalling typhoons in South China,this paper reviews and analyzes the current researches on the asymmetry of the precipitation distribution of the landfalling typhoons and the mechanism of the persistent torrential rains in the later period of typhoons.Relevant scientific issues that need in-depth study and measures of improving numerical predictions are put forward,in order to provide references for the improvement of the forecast of heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone(TC)landfall in South China.The analysis reveals that the vertical shear of the ambient field,the boundary of the low-level air mass(such as the boundary of the cold pool),the intrusion of dry and cold air,mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)and the local topography are important factors causing the asymmetric distribution of precipitation of the landfalling typhoons in South China.The occurrence of persistent torrential rains in South China during the late period of landfalling typhoons is often related to the increase in summer monsoon activity.The active southwest monsoon tends to provide favorable conditions for the development of MCSs in torrential rains.Then,MCSs feed back to the large-scale circulation through latent heat heating,contributing to the maintenance of TC vortex circulation and the southwest monsoon,and cause iterative development of MCSs,resulting in persistent torrential rains.To further improve the forecast of models,it is essential to investigate and evaluate the performance of the current models,carry out in-depth research on the related scientific issues,and then propose effective improvement plans.

关 键 词：登陆华南台风 降水不对称性 持续性暴雨 形成机理 模式预报 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]