飞机积冰预报方法及应用场景研究  

Study on the Forecasting Method and Application Scenario of Aircraft Icing

作　　者：周星旭 李昀英 张潮 ZHOU Xingxu;LI Yunying;ZHANG Chao(College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《气象》2023年第4期415-426,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42075077);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507604)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于两种常用的飞机积冰诊断指数,利用ERA5再分析资料作为积冰发生的大气环境场,构建了飞机积冰诊断预报模型,对采集到的25个华东地区春季积冰个例进行了回算,并分别计算了我国不同纬度典型城市上空飞机积冰发生的时空分布特征,模拟了一次冷空气活动过程中浙江新昌上空积冰区域的时空分布,提出了飞机积冰预报方法的几种应用场景。结果表明:在选取的积冰个例中,积冰(IC)指数法诊断准确率为80%,假霜点温度经验法诊断准确率为92%;假霜点温度经验法考虑了飞机飞行速度与动力增温的影响,并且与冰水粒子浓度和中、低云的云量相关性更好,但在没有飞机真实空速情况下预测的积冰强度不够准确,400 hPa以上高度空报较多;IC指数法和假霜点温度经验法均能有效诊断出积冰易发生高度层和积冰高发时段,也可以有效预报某站点高空积冰强度分布情况,另外假霜点温度经验法可以反演发生积冰时的飞机临界飞行速度。In this paper,based on two commonly used aircraft icing diagnostic indices and ERA5 reanalysis data as the atmospheric environmental field for icing occurrence,an aircraft icing diagnosis and forecasting method is constructed and hindcast for 25 collected spring icing cases over Eastern China.The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of aircraft icing occurrence over typical cities at different latitudes in China are calculated separately,and the spatial and temporal distribution of icing areas over Xinchang,Zhejiang Province during one cold air activity case is simulated.In addition,several application scenarios of aircraft icing forecasting methods are proposed.The results indicate that among the selected icing cases,the diagnosis accuracy of icing index(IC)method is 80%,while that of the false frost point temperature empirical(TF)method is 92%.The effects of aircraft flight speed and power warming are taken into account by TF method,which has better correlation with ice water particle concentration and cloud cover in medium and low clouds,but the predicted icing intensity is not accurate enough without the real flight speed of the aircraft,and there are more false forecasts of icing intensity above 400 hPa altitude.In general,both the IC and TF methods can effectively diagnose the icing-prone altitude layer and the icing-prone time,and can effectively forecast the distribution of high-altitude ice accumulation intensity at a certain station.In addition,the TF method can calculate the icing critical flight speed of the aircraft.

关 键 词：飞机积冰 积冰强度 诊断预报方法 应用场景 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457