基于三角模糊数层次分析法的水电项目社会稳定风险评估  

Social Stability Risk Assessment of Hydropower Project Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number and Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：陈威威 CHEN Wei-wei(School of Transportation and Civil Engineering,Nantong University,Nantong 226019,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学交通与土木工程学院,江苏南通226019

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2023年第4期251-260,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：水电项目的建设可带来巨大的经济效益和社会效益,但一些与民众利益相关的移民安置、征地补偿、生态环境等事项若处置不当,易引发社会稳定问题.开展科学有效的社会稳定风险评估是水电项目建设前的一项重要工作,将有助于保障民众利益和确保项目的有序实施.为解决现有评价方法存在的问题,针对水电项目社会稳定风险评价指标大多为定性指标,引入三角模糊数对传统的层次分析法加以改进,充分考虑专家判断的模糊性以提高评价结果的准确性,据此构建了水电项目社会稳定风险模糊综合评价模型,并将该模型应用于河南某抽水蓄能电站的社会稳定风险评估.结果表明:此项目社会稳定总体风险水平为中度风险,风险主要来自生态环境影响和征地拆迁补偿;该模型可为水电项目的科学决策和化解社会矛盾提供定量依据.Hydropower projects can bring huge economic and social benefits.However,if issues related to the interests of the people such as the resettlement of affected people,land requisition compensation and ecological environment protection are improperly handled,hydropower projects may cause social stability risk.Scientific and effective social stability risk assessment before the construction of hydropower projects is important to protect interests of the people and ensure the orderly implementation of the projects.In order to solve problems in the existing researches,established a social stability risk evaluation index system for hydropower projects firstly,in view of qualitative nature of the indexes and fuzzy characteristics of expert opinions,and then introduced triangular fuzzy number to improve analytic hierarchy process so as to obtain accurate weights of the indexes,and finally constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of social stability risk for hydropower projects.The model was applied to social stability risk assessment of a pumped storage power station in Henan Province.The results show that the overall risk level of social stability of this project is moderate,the risks mainly come from ecological environmental impact and compensation of land requisition and building demolition;the model can provide quantitative basis for scientific decision-making of hydropower projects and resolving social conflicts.

关 键 词：风险评估 社会稳定风险 水电项目 三角模糊数 层次分析法 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F426.91[政治法律—政治学] D630[政治法律—中外政治制度]