盘龙铅锌矿区充水条件分析与基于GM(1,1)-Markov模型的涌水量预测  

Analysis of Water-filling Condition and Water Inflow Prediction Based on GM(1,1)-Markov Model in Panlong Lead-Zinc Mine Area

作　　者：潘泳兴 卢丹美 陈盟 王櫹橦 吴卫忠 PAN Yongxing;LU Danmei;CHEN Meng;WANG Xiaotong;WU Weizhong(College of EnvironmentaI Science and Engineering,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China;Guangxi Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Survey,Liuzhou 545006,China;College of Earth Science,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学环境科学与工程学院,广西桂林541004 [2]广西水文地质工程地质勘察院,广西柳州545006 [3]桂林理工大学地球科学学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2023年第3期90-99,共10页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2020GXNSFBA297050);广西科技基地和人才专项项目(桂科AD19110046)。

摘　　要：岩溶水害是威胁矿山开采安全的主要灾害之一。以广西武宣盘龙铅锌矿区为研究对象,在分析水文地质条件和岩溶发育的基础上,对矿区的充水条件进行了分析,并结合灰色理论与马尔科夫理论等方法对矿区涌水量进行了预测。结果表明:碳酸盐岩夹碎屑岩岩溶含水层为矿区的主要含水层,其富水性中等;岩溶含水层是矿区涌突水的主要充水水源,其他充水水源还包括黔江、大气降雨和地表积水等,主要是通过裂隙、溶洞、采空区冒落带和导水裂隙带等充水通道直接或间接充水;采用GM(1,1)模型、GM(1,1)残差模型和GM(1,1)-Markov模型对2010—2020年矿区涌水量进行预测,并对模型预测精度进行了检验,其中GM(1,1)-Markov模型的预测精度最优,平均相对残差仅为1.96%,并预测得出2021年上半年和下半年该矿区涌水量分别为825.08 m^(3)/h、867.40 m^(3)/h。该研究结果可为矿区安全生产和涌突水防治提供理论依据。Karst water disaster is one of the main disasters threatening the safety of mining.In this paper,with a typical lead-zinc mine in Panlong,Wuxuan as the research project,quantitative analysis of waterfilling conditions was conducted based on hydrogeological conditions and karst development and water inflow prediction was made through the grey theory and Markov theory.The results show that the main aquifer is a non-pure karst aquifer in the mining area>and the water abundance is medium.The main sources of water filling include karst aquifer,Qianjiang River,atmospheric rainfall,and surface stagnant water9and the groundwater of karst aquifer is the main source of water filling.Water is mainly filled directly or indirectly through fissures,karst caves>caving zones,and water-conducting fractured zones.The GM(1,1)model,GM(1,1)residual model and GM(1,1)-Markov model are used to predict the water inflow of the mining area from 2010 to 2020 and test the accuracy.The prediction accuracy of the GM(1,1)-Markov model is the best9 the average relative residual is 1.96%9and the predicted water inflow in the first half and second half of 2021 is 825.08 m^(3)/h and 867.40 m^(3)/h,respectively.The research results provide a theoretical basis for scientific guidance of mining areas and the possible occurrence of mine water inflow.

关 键 词：盘龙铅锌矿区 充水条件 涌水量预测 GM(1 1)-Markov模型 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学] P641.4[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]