民国时期西南地区疫灾分布格局及与气温变化的关联性研究  

Distribution pattern of epidemic disasters and its correlation with temperature change in Southwest China during the Republic of China period

作　　者：郭艺澍 殷淑燕 GUO Yishu;YIN Shuyan(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）》2023年第3期57-67,共11页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(18YJA770021);国家自然科学基金(41771110)。

摘　　要：基于《中国三千年疫灾史料汇编》中民国卷的全国疫灾史料,提取整理出西南地区各县域逐年疫灾发生的时间序列并进行空间分布可视化。结合英国东英吉利大学(University of East Anglia)气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)提供的逐月气温数据集CRU TS v.4.05,利用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Sen斜率、热点分析及相关分析等方法研究气温变化、疫灾事件以及两者之间的关联性。结果表明:(1)民国时期西南地区每年均有疫灾发生,共发生疫灾4170次,平均每年约发生110次;波及共计3256县次,平均每年约发生86县;民国后期疫灾程度严重,频次与县次均呈现波动上升趋势,具有同步性;(2)平均温度整体表现为波动上升,空间分布上自东南向西北方向逐级递减,绝大部分为逐年上升趋势;(3)疫灾频次与温度具有显著正相关,夏秋疫灾多发,冬季少发;空间上有75.16%的研究区疫灾累积年数与平均气温呈现正相关,说明高温环境有利于疫灾的流行。(4)气温突变和波动幅度对疫灾的发生具有显著的影响,气温波动幅度大时,疫灾发生较多。Based on the historical data in the Annals of Epidemics in China over the past 3000 years,the time series of epidemic disasters during the Republic of China period in each county in Southwest China was extracted and sorted out,and the spatial distribution was visualized.By integrating the monthly temperature data set CRU(Climatic Research Unit)TS v.4.05,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Sen slope,and hot spot analysis,we investigated the correlation between temperature change and epidemic events.The results showed that:1)Epidemic disasters occurred every year in Southwest China,with a total of 4170 epidemics,about 110 epidemics per year on average in the period of the Republic of China.A total of 3256 counties were affected,with an average of 86 counties per year.In the later time of the Republic of China period,the severity of epidemic disasters increased,and the frequency and affected areas simultaneously rose with some oscillations.2)The average temperature decreased gradually from southeast to northwest in spatial distribution and increased overall temporarily with small fluctuations.3)There was a significant positive correlation between the frequency of epidemics and temperature.Epidemics occurred frequently in summer and autumn and occasionally in winter.The cumulative years of epidemics were positively correlated with air temperature in 75.16%of the study areas,indicating that a high-temperature environment was conducive to epidemics.4)The abrupt change and fluctuation range of temperature have significant influence on the occurrence of epidemic disaster.When the temperature fluctuation range is large,epidemic disaster occurs more.

关 键 词：疫灾 时空分布 平均温度 民国时期 西南地区 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学] K928[历史地理—人文地理学]