房产税改革对城镇居民家庭消费支出的影响——来自2011年房产税改革试点的证据  

The Impact of Property Tax Reform on Urban Household Consumption Expenditure:Evidence from the 2011 Property Tax Reform Pilot

作　　者：曲一申 臧旭恒[1] 李清杨 QU Yishen;ZANG Xuheng;LI Qingyang

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《济南大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期88-101,179,共15页Journal of University of Jinan:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国家庭经济风险测度、成因及外溢性研究”(项目编号:21&ZD086)之阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：以2011年在上海和重庆两地推行的房产税改革试点作为准自然实验,基于CFPS家庭微观数据采用倍差法实证分析了房产税改革对城镇居民家庭消费支出的影响和具体作用渠道。研究发现,总体上看,房产税改革试点政策对城镇居民家庭消费支出具有显著的负向影响,这种抑制作用对重庆城镇家庭和有且仅有一套房家庭的消费支出尤其明显。房产税改革试点政策的收入效应、预防性储蓄效应和负向财富效应是其影响城镇居民家庭消费支出的作用渠道,通过降低城镇居民家庭的可支配收入、增加预防性储蓄以及减少住房资产价值,进而挤出其家庭消费支出。研究结论对于未来房产税的推广和居民消费潜力的释放提供了政策启示。Using the pilot property tax reform implemented in Shanghai and Chongqing in 2011 as a quasi-natural experiment,the impact and channels of property tax reform on urban household consumption expenditure are empirically analyzed using the difference-in-difference method based on CFPS household data.The study finds that,in general,the pilot property tax reform policy has a significant negative impact on urban household consumption expenditure,and this inhibitory effect is heterogeneous across pilot cities and households with different numbers of housing asset holdings;the property tax reform inhibits urban household consumption expenditure mainly through the income effect,precautionary savings effect and negative wealth effect.The findings of the study are of reference value for the future promotion of property tax and the enhancement of household consumption.

关 键 词：房产税改革 居民家庭消费 收入效应 预防性储蓄效应 财富效应 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]