人工智能对我国劳动力市场的影响--基于人口老龄化的分析  

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on China's Labor Market:Based on the Analysis of Population Aging

作　　者：赵安南 丁家云[2] ZHAO An-nan;DING Jia-Yun(Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233030,China;Tongling University,Tongling Anhui 244061,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]铜陵学院,安徽铜陵244061

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2023年第1期32-38,共7页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：铜陵学院与安徽财经大学联合培养研究生创新基金项目“人工智能对我国劳动力市场的影响——基于人口老龄化的分析”(tlaclhy1)。

摘　　要：基于中国2005—2016年的省级面板数据,在分析人工智能以及人口老龄化影响劳动力市场的理论机制基础之上,构建动态面板模型实证分析了人工智能对我国劳动力市场的影响。结果发现:人工智能的发展对高、低技能劳动力就业有着显著的不利影响,人口老龄化缓解了人工智能对高技能劳动力的替代效应;但是对低技能劳动力的替代效应的影响并不显著;人工智能技术进步加剧了劳动力市场上的收入不平等的现象,而老龄化程度的加深则深化这一影响;当以老龄化为门槛变量的时候,人工智能对劳动力市场的影响有着显著的门槛效应。This paper builds a dynamic panel model based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2016 in China and makes an empirical analysis on the theoretical mechanism of the impact of population aging and artificial intelligence on labor market.The results show that the development of artificial intelligence has a significant negative impact on the employment of high and low skilled labor force,and the aging of population alleviates the substitution effect of artificial intelligence on high skilled labor force.However,the substitution effect on low-skilled labor force is not significant;Progress in artificial intelligence has increased income inequality in the labor market,while the deepening of the aging degree has deepened the impact;When aging is taken as the threshold variable,artificial intelligence has a significant threshold effect on the labor market.

关 键 词：人工智能 劳动力市场 老龄化 动态面板 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F24[经济管理—劳动经济]