基于pair-copula结构的珠江三角洲河网区水位空间依赖性分析  

Analysis of spatial dependence of water level in river network area of Pearl River Delta based on pair-copula construction

作　　者：范敏韬 谢宇莹 佘贞燕 余龙飞 林凯荣 刘智勇 FAN Mintao;XIE Yuying;SHE Zhenyan;YU Longfei;LIN Kairong;LIU Zhiyong(School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Laboratory of Marine Science and Engineering(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082,China;Foshan Branch of Guangdong Hydrology Bureau,Foshan 528010,China;School of Marine Engineering and Technology,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学土木工程学院,广东广州510275 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519082 [3]广东省水文局佛山水文分局,广东佛山528010 [4]中山大学海洋工程与技术学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第3期222-228,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3001000);国家自然科学基金(52179031);珠江人才计划团队项目(2019ZT08G090);广东省自然科学基金(2020A1515010559)。

摘　　要：基于1957—2016年珠江三角洲河网区15个水文站月平均水位资料,利用pair-copula结构构建水位空间依赖性模型生成样本数据,并采用F-madogram方法定量评估不同时期、不同时间尺度和不同距离范围内珠江三角洲河网区的水位空间依赖性。结果表明:珠江三角洲河网横向发育区域比东南45°方向发育区域水位空间依赖性弱;夏季丰水期水位空间依赖性比冬季枯水期水位空间依赖性显著增强,且季节尺度下水位空间依赖性比全年尺度下水位空间依赖性弱;受人类活动影响,在远距离情况下夏季丰水期1987—2016年的水位空间依赖性比1957—1986年显著增强;在较小距离范围内年极小月水位1987—2016年的空间依赖性比1957—1986年显著减弱,在远距离情况下年极大月水位1987—2016年的空间依赖性比1957—1986年显著增强。Based on the monthly mean water level data of 15 hydrological stations in river network area of the Pearl River Delta from 1957 to 2016,a water level spatial dependence model was established using the pair-copula construction to generate samples,and the F-madogram method was used to quantitatively evaluate the spatial dependence of water level in river network area of the Pearl River Delta in different stages and distance ranges at different time scales.The results show that the spatial dependence of water level in the area with river network developing in the transverse direction is weaker than that in the 45°southeast direction in river network area of the Pearl River Delta,the spatial dependence of water level in wet season is significantly stronger than that in dry season,and the spatial dependence of water level at seasonal scale is weaker than that at annual scale.Due to the influence of human activities,the spatial dependence of water level in wet season from 1987 to 2016 was significantly enhanced compared with that in the period of 1957 to 1986 in a large distance range.In a small distance range,the spatial dependence of annual minimum monthly water level from 1987 to 2016 was significantly weaker than that in the period of 1957 to 1986,and the spatial dependence of annual maximum monthly water level from 1987 to 2016 was significantly enhanced compared with that in the period of 1957 to 1986.

关 键 词：空间依赖性 pair-copula结构 F-madogram函数 水位 珠江三角洲河网 

分 类 号：P332.3[天文地球—水文科学]