基于贝叶斯网络的高压断路器拒动故障概率预测  

Probability Prediction of Refusal Operation of High Voltage Circuit Breaker Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：马宏明 钱国超 王欣 段雨廷 李昭 Ma Hongming;Qian Guochao;Wang Xin;Duan Yutin;Li Zhao(Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Electric Power Research Institute Kunming 650217,China;Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650011,China)

机构地区：[1]云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,云南昆明650217 [2]云南电网有限责任公司,云南昆明650011

出　　处：《云南电力技术》2023年第2期23-28,32,共7页Yunnan Electric Power

摘　　要：在小样本条件下,结合运维单位掌握完整的设备信息、运维信息,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的高压断路器拒动故障概率预测方法,对高压断路器拒动故障可能性范围进行估计。首先,建立高压断路器拒动的元器件故障树;其次,通过分析多种影响因素与关键元器件之间的关联性,建立“影响因素—元器件—拒动”的多层贝叶斯网络;最后根据全网110 kV及以上电压等级高压断路器运行情况及拒动缺陷/事件情况,将每台断路器影响因素的定性特征转化为定量特征,运用贝叶斯网络的推理算法,实现高压断路器拒动概率的预测。通过算例验证,证明了所提方法的有效性。Under the condition of limited outage samples and combined with the Equipment information and operation information of power supply bureau,this paper introduces a probability prediction method of refusal operation of high voltage circuit breaker based on Bayesian network.Firstly,this paper establishes a component fault tree for refusal operation of high voltage circuit breaker.Secondly,by analyzing the correlation between various influencing factors and key components,a multi-layer Bayesian network of“influencing factors-components-refusal operation”is established.Finally,According to the operation and refusal operation defects/events of circuit breakers,the qualitative characteristics of the influencing factors of each circuit breaker are transformed into quantitative characteristics,and the inference algorithm of Bayesian network is used to predict the failure probability of circuit breakers.Through calculating the samples,the effectiveness of this method is verified.

关 键 词：高压断路器 贝叶斯网络 拒动 故障 概率 

分 类 号：TM74[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]