基于VAR模型的海口港港口物流与海口市经济协调发展研究  

Research on Coordinated Development of Port Logistics and Urban Economy in Haikou Based on VAR Model

作　　者：侯媛媛[1] 丁莉 魏艳[1] HOU Yuanyuan;DING Li;WEI Yan(Institute of Scientific&Technical Information Key Laboratory of Applied Research on Tropical Crop Information Technology of Hainan Province,CATAS,Haikou 571700,China)

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院科技信息研究所、海南省热带作物信息技术应用研究重点实验室,海南海口571700

出　　处：《物流技术》2023年第4期53-60,共8页Logistics Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(19BGL282)。

摘　　要：针对海口港发展概况与海口城市经济发展现状,选取6个一级指标18个二级指标,构建了海口港港口物流与海口市城市协同发展的评价指标体系,在此基础上构建了港口物流与城市经济协同关系VAR模型,研究了海口港港口物流与城市经济系统的协同性,得出了2001-2020年海口港港口物流子系统与海口市经济子系统的协同度划分等级。结果表明,海口港港口物流和海口市经济之间的发展趋势表现为相互促进,复合系统的发展势头不断增强。海口港与海口市经济系统的协同程度因时间不同而变化,并且随着时间推移协同度不断提高,在2017年之后,海口港与海口市经济发展达到了极度协同。基于研究结果,提出了继续加强港口与城市发展合作的相关建议。In this paper,in light of the general development situation of the Haikou port and the status quo of the urban economy in Haikou,we constructed the evaluation index system for the coordinated development of port logistics at the Haikou Port and the urban economy in Haikou comprising of 6 primary indexes and 18 secondary indexes.On this paper,we established the VAR model of the synergetic relationship between port logistics and urban economy,studied the synergy between port logistics at the Haikou Port and the urban economic system of Haikou,and scored the degree of synergy between the Haikou port logistics subsystem and the Haikou urban economic subsystem from 2001 to 2020.The result obtained showed that the trend of development of port logistics at the Haikou Port and the urban economy in Haikou was generally toward reciprocal promotion,and the momentum of system compounding was constantly on the rise;the degree of synergy between Haikou Port and the urban economic system of Haikou varied with time and the level of synergy between the two kept increasing over time;and after 2017,the Haikou Port and the urban economy in Haikou reached the level of extreme synergy.Based on the research results,we presented relevant suggestions for strengthening the cooperation between ports and urban economy.

关 键 词：港口物流 城市经济 协同发展 VAR模型 海口港 海口市 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济] F552.7F127F224