基于多因子遴选和灰色聚类矢量投影法的隧洞塌方风险评价方法及应用  

Risk Assessment of Tunnel Collapse Based on Multi-factor Selection and Grey Clustering Vector Projection Method

作　　者：张建明 侍克斌[1,2] 善鸿泽 石仁义 符涛 卢志鹏 ZHANG Jian-ming;SHI Ke-bin;SHAN Hong-ze;SHI Ren-yi;FU Tao;LU Zhi-peng(College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy Engineering Safety and Water Disaster Prevention,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第5期121-125,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：“新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室”2022年研究项目(ZDSYS-YJS-2022-08)。

摘　　要：由于隧洞塌方风险评价涉及众多模糊因素且评价方法复杂,因而造就了评价体系构成灰色体系、评价方法适用性不高、难以准确评估隧洞塌方风险等级的问题。基于此,运用灰色系统基本思想及矢量投影原理,提出了一套基于灰色矢量投影法的隧洞塌方风险评价模型,在综合分析复杂地层条件下隧洞塌方的影响因素基础上,采取顾及到决策者观点差异程度的群层次分析法(GAHP)对预选评价指标体系进行降维遴选,继而根据综合决策权重系数遴选出能够充分反映塌方机理迥异、具有代表性和区分度高的13个优选评价指标,在此基础上建立隧洞塌方风险优选评价指标体系;此外,引入灰色群组聚类(GGC)和反熵权法(AEW)分别确定主、客观单层次排序权重;利用改进博弈论组合赋权(ICWGT)获得最佳综合权重分配系数,确定指标总层次排序权重;最后根据此模型对隧洞塌方风险进行评估验证。研究结果表明,隧洞塌方风险评价等级与实际开挖情况吻合度较高,验证了该模型的可靠性及准确性。The risk assessment of collapse of tunnel involves many fuzzy factors and the evaluation method is complex,which makes the evaluation system constitute a gray system and the applicability of the evaluation method is not high.It is difficult to accurately assess the risk level of tunnel landslides.Using the basic idea of gray system and vector projection principle,a set of tunnel collapse risk evaluation model based on gray vector projection method is proposed.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of tunnel collapse under complex stratigraphic conditions,the group analytic hierarchy process(GAHP),which takes into account the degree of difference in the views of decision makers,is used to reduce the dimensionality of the pre-selected evaluation index system.Then,according to the comprehensive decision weight coefficient,13 preferred evaluation indicators that can fully reflect the different,representative and highly differentiated evaluation indicators of the collapse mechanism are selected to establish a tunnel collapse risk optimal evaluation index system.In addition,grey group clustering(GGC)and anti-entropy weight(AEW)are introduced to determine subjective and objective single-level sorting weights,respectively.The improved combination weighting method of game theory(ICWGT)is used to obtain the optimal comprehensive weight distribution coefficient to determine the total ranking weight of the indicator.Finally,according to this model,the risk of collapse of five groups of tunnels was evaluated by the model.The results show that the risk assessment level of tunnel collapse is highly consistent with the actual excavation.The reliability and accuracy of the model are verified.

关 键 词：隧洞塌方 风险评价 灰关联投影 指标遴选 灰色群组聚类 改进博弈论组合赋权 

分 类 号：TV554[水利工程—水利水电工程] U458.3[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] X947[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]