基于统计分析法的中小河流预警预报研究  

Research on Warning and Forecasting of Small and Medium Rivers Based on Statistical Analysis

作　　者：邵金鑫 刘旋旋 SHAO Jinxin;LIU Xuanxuan(Zhaoqing Hydrologic Branch of Guangdong Hydrologic Bureau,Zhaoqing 526060,China;Qingyuan Hydrologic Branch of Guangdong Hydrologic Bureau,Qingyuan 526000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局肇庆水文分局,广东肇庆526060 [2]广东省水文局清远水文分局,广东清远511500

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2023年第5期57-61,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：针对中小河流资料少、汇流时间短、预报难度大等特点,探究中小河流的快速预警预报方法。以云浮市仙菊水文站为例,分析场次洪水雨洪过程,利用统计回归法分析造峰雨量、降雨历时和水位涨幅相关关系,建立线性回归模型,制定洪水预报速查表。结合临界雨量法,得到仙菊站预警水位时对应的临界雨量阈值,并建立预警临界雨量速查表。该研究成果可实现仙菊站的快速预警预报,为其他中小河流地区快速预警预报工作提供参考。Aiming at the characteristics of Small and Medium rivers,such as less data,short confluence time,and great difficulty in prediction,this paper explores the rapid early warning and prediction methods for Small and Medium rivers.Taking Xianju Hydrological Station in Yunfu City as an example,the process of each flood is analyzed.The statistical regression method is used to analyze the correlation between peak rainfall,rainfall duration and water level rise,establish a linear regression model,and develop a quick reference table for flood forecasting.Combined with the critical rainfall method,the critical rainfall threshold corresponding to the early warning water level of Xianju Station is obtained,and a quick lookup table of early warning critical rainfall is established.The research results can realize the rapid early warning and forecasting of Xianju Station,and provide reference for the rapid early warning and forecasting of other small and medium-sized river areas.

关 键 词：中小河流 预警预报 统计分析 速查表 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]