2021年缅甸军人接权何以发生?——基于有限准入秩序视角的分析  

Why 2021 Myanmar Military Takeover Happened?--A Perspective on Limited Access Order

作　　者：冀天 向飘 JI Tian;XIANG Piao(School of Government,East China University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai,China)

机构地区：[1]华东政法大学政府管理学院

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2023年第2期18-36,153,154,共21页Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：自2015年全国民主联盟在缅甸议会选举中取得压倒性胜利后,缅甸的民主化进程迅速发展。2020年民盟再次胜选后,外界更是普遍认为缅甸民主已趋于巩固。但是缅甸军方2021年突然的行动打破了外界的预期,缅甸的民主化进程也由此中止。从有限准入秩序视角看,缅甸此次军人接权在意料之外的表象下隐藏着必然性的逻辑。在军人接权前,缅甸的政治秩序属于权力不平等有限准入秩序。在这一秩序下,缅甸国防军是主导者,民盟则是挑战型配合者,两者在秩序偏好上的冲突是政治秩序变迁的根本动力。在推动秩序转型时,作为权力资源弱势方的挑战型配合者如果不能及时补偿主导者,必然会引发主导者不满,进而导致现行政治秩序的崩溃。相比于2015年胜选后采取的补偿策略,民盟在2020年胜选后并没有及时补偿和安抚作为主导者的集团,最终导致2021年缅甸军人接权的发生。Since the overwhelming victory of the National League for Democracy in Myanmar‘s parliamentary elections in 2015,the democratization process in Myanmar has developed rapidly.After the NLD's victory again in 2020,it is widely believed that Democracy in Myanmar has tended to consolidate.However,the military takeover suddenly launched by Tatmadaw in 2021 broke outside expectations,and Myanmar's democratization process was suspended.From the perspective of the limited access order,this military takeover has a logic of inevitability under the unexpected appearance.Before the military takeover,Myanmar belonged to an unequal power relation-limited access order.Under this order,Tatmadaw is the dominant player,while the NLD is the collaborators.The conflict between the two about order preference is the fundamental driving force for the change of political order.When promoting the transformation of order,if the collaborators cannot compensate the dominant player in time,they will inevitably cause dissatisfaction among the player and then lead to the collapse of the existing political order.Compared with the compensation strategy adopted after the 2015 victory,the NLD did not compensate and appease the dominant player in time after the 2020 victory.This strategy eventually led to a military takeover in Myanmar in 2021.

关 键 词：缅甸 政治转型 军人接权 民盟 国防军 有限准入秩序 

分 类 号：D733.71[政治法律—政治学]