专题笔谈:中国人口负增长与人口高质量发展  

Negative Population Growth and High-Quality Population Development in China

作　　者：原新[1] 杜鹏[2] 童玉芬[3] 陆杰华[4] 尹德挺[5] YUAN Xin;DU Peng;TONG Yufen;LU Jiehua;YIN Deting

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院、老年发展战略研究中心,天津300071 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、老年学研究所,北京100872 [3]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院、人口经济研究所、人口与发展研究中心,北京100070 [4]北京大学社会学系,北京100871 [5]中共北京市委党校(北京行政学院)

出　　处：《北京行政学院学报》2023年第3期11-25,共15页Journal of Beijing administration institute

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口负增长时代的国家人口发展战略研究”(22ZDA098);国家社会科学基金重大项目“实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略”(21ZDA106)。

摘　　要：2022年,我国首次出现自1961年以来年度新增人口少于死亡人口的人口负增长现象,表明我国人口发展呈现标志性变化。我国的人口负增长是世界人口总量第一大国、世界经济体量第二大国的人口负增长,是人口资源大国向人力资本强国转型中的人口负增长,是以智能化、数字化、网络化为主要特征新一轮科技革命和产业变革下的人口负增长。同时,人口的长期负增长所带来的少子化、老龄化、人口结构失衡等现象,也会给区域社会经济持续发展带来潜在风险。这就要求我们既要在全球视野下把握好人口负增长先发国家的共性特征和客观规律,又要深入研究基于我国国情与本土文化的中国特色和综合影响。为此,本刊特邀原新、杜鹏、童玉芬、陆杰华四位资深人口学家就人口负增长所涉的重大问题进行研讨,以期对相关的学术研究和政策推进提供智识参考。原新教授从演进视角研判我国人口负增长的阶段性特征,分析人口全要素的整体联动,指出要积极寻找人口负增长早期阶段的新人口机会,持续收获新时代人口红利;杜鹏教授站在中国式现代化的高度,分析了人口负增长趋势下的人口变化对未来中国式现代化进程带来的挑战和机遇,并对以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化的观念进行了阐释;童玉芬教授则在分析我国人口负增长及其伴随的综合人口现象的基础上,从生产者和消费者两个方面探讨人口负增长对经济发展的影响路径及对策;陆杰华教授考察了曾先于我国步入人口负增长阶段的德国、日本、韩国、新加坡等国家的应对经验,并给出这些国际经验对我国的启示。面对人口发展的新常态,在我们共同的努力下,一定能够找到科学有效的应对策略,优化人口素质结构,为推动实现人口高质量发展和人民高品质生活作出贡献。Organizer’s Introduction:In 2022,for the first time since 1961,China had a phenomenon of negative population growth where the annual newly-born population was less than the death population,which indicates a landmark change in population development.The negative population growth of China-the one of the country as the second economy in the world with the largest total domestic population in the world,the one in the transition from a large country with population resources to a strong country with human capital,and the one under the new round of scientific technological revolution and industrial transformation mainly characterized by intellectualization,digitalization,and networking.At the same time,phenomena such as fewer children,aging,and population structure imbalance caused by the long-term negative population growth will also bring about potential risks to the sustainable development of regional social economy,which requires us not only to grasp the common characteristics and requires us not only to grasp the common characteristics and objective laws of countries leading negative population growth from a global perspective,but also to thoroughly study the Chinese characteristics and comprehensive impact on the basis of China's national conditions and local culture.For this reason,Yuan Xin,Du Peng,Tong Yufen,and Lu Jiehua,the four senior scholars in demographic related fields,are specially invited by our journal to discuss major issues related to negative population growth,which forms a dialogue,in order to provide intellectual reference for relevant academic research and policy promotion.Yuan judges the stage characteristics of negative population growth from the perspective of evolution,analyzes the overall linkage of total population factors,and points out that we should actively seek new demographic opportunities in the early period of the negative population growth,so as to continuously reap the demographic dividend in the New Era;Du,standing on the height of Chinese modernization,analyzes the challeng

关 键 词：人口负增长 中国式现代化 人口高质量发展 新人口机会 人才红利 人口素质 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]