基于改良德尔菲法构建奶牛场布鲁氏菌病半定量风险评估指标体系  

Construction of a Semi-qualitative Risk Evaluation Index System for Brucellosis in Dairy Farms Based on the Modified Delphi Method

作　　者：杨涛 李中华[2] 陈峰 陈芹 应清香 陈琼 张丹英 Yang Tao;Li Zhonghua;Chen Feng;Chen Qin;Ying Qingxiang;Chen Qiong;Zhang Danying(Xiamen Center of Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Xiamen,Fujian 361009,China;Fujian Center of Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Fuzhou,Fujian 350001,China;Shandong Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Jinan,Shandong 250100,China;Fuqing Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Center,Fuqing,Fujian 350300,China;Nanping Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control,Nanping,Fujian 354200,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门市动物疫病预防控制中心,福建厦门361009 [2]福建省动物疫病预防控制中心,福建福州350001 [3]山东省动物疫病预防与控制中心,山东济南250100 [4]福清市畜牧兽医中心,福建福清350300 [5]南平市动物疫病预防控制中心,福建南平354200

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2023年第5期21-26,共6页China Animal Health Inspection

基　　金：福建省星火项目(2022s0102);福建省教育科学“十四五”规划2022年度课题项目(JKGZ22-119)。

摘　　要：半定量风险评估是采用定量与定性分析相结合方式进行的风险评估。为规范福建省奶牛场和各级动物疫病防控机构开展奶牛场布鲁氏菌病(简称“布病”)风险评估,提供一套科学、规范、操作性强的奶牛场布病风险评估方法,参照世界动物卫生组织(WOAH)风险评估的原则和步骤,通过文献查阅,收集专家经验,拟定各种奶牛场布病传入和场内传播风险因素,生成电子问卷后,邀请国内44位兽医流行病学领域或实践管理经验丰富的专家,采用改良的德尔菲专家咨询法,对风险因素进行风险赋值,并确定传入风险与场内传播风险的权重,同时征求修改意见和建议,经综合分析后建立了一套实用的奶牛场布病半定量风险评估方法,以期为福建省控制和净化布病,建立奶牛布病无疫小区提供规范性的技术依据和实用工具。Semi-quantitative risk evaluation means a risk evaluation to be conducted by the way of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis.In order to standardize the risk evaluation on brucellosis in dairy farms to be conducted by the farms themselves and animal disease prevention and control institutions at all levels in Fujian Province,and to provide a scientific,standardized and operable method for such evaluation,various risk factors for introduction and transmission of brucellosis into/within dairy farms were worked out according to the principles and steps of WOAH risk evaluation and through looking up literature and collecting experiences from experts.Then an electronic questionnaire was generated for 44 domestic experts with rich practical management experience and/or in the field of veterinary epidemiology who were invited to evaluate the value of the risk factors using a modified Delphi method and to determine the weights of entry and transmission risk within the farms.Meanwhile,after comprehensive analysis on the opinions and suggestions for modification,a practical semi-quantitative risk evaluation method for brucellosis in dairy farms was established,with a view to providing a technical basis and a practical tool for the prevention and control of brucellosis as well as the construction of brucellosis free zones in Fujian Province.

关 键 词：布鲁氏菌病 半定量风险评估 奶牛场 德尔菲法 

分 类 号：S851.3[农业科学—预防兽医学]