气候变化背景下中国樟子松潜在分布预测  

Prediction of the potential distribution pattern of Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica in China under climate change

作　　者：张世林 高润红[1] 高明龙 韩淑敏 张文英 赵静 ZHANG Shilin;GAO Runhong;GAO Minglong;HAN Shumin;ZHANG Wenying;ZHAO Jing(School of Forestry,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010019,Inner Mongolia,China;Baotou Forestry and Grassland Work Station,Baotou 014030,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学林学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010019 [2]包头市林业和草原工作站,内蒙古包头014030

出　　处：《浙江农林大学学报》2023年第3期560-568,共9页Journal of Zhejiang A&F University

基　　金：内蒙古自治区自然科学基金重大项目(2020ZD04);内蒙古自治区重大科技专项(2021ZD0011-1-1)。

摘　　要：【目的】预测不同气候条件下樟子松Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica在中国的潜在分布及迁移,确定影响樟子松分布的主要环境变量,为樟子松合理引种与保护提供理论依据。【方法】根据200个樟子松分布点和20个环境变量,利用R语言中ENMeval数据包优化最大熵模型(MaxEnt)并利用ArcGIS空间分析技术对当前气候条件下樟子松在中国潜在分布进行模拟,通过Pearson相关分析和方差膨胀因子分析结合预建模结果对环境因子的筛选,综合Jackknife检验和相关系数,分析樟子松主导限制因子,预测樟子松从当前到未来时期(2050s和2100s)的3种气候情景(SSP126、SSP245和SSP585)下适生区变化趋势。【结果】MaxEnt模型受训者工作特征曲线都大于0.94,说明模型精度较高,能较好预测樟子松潜在分布;影响樟子松分布的主导因子为最冷季度平均气温、降水量季节性变化、最冷月最低气温、温度季节变动系数、最干季度平均气温和最热月最高气温,累计贡献率为92.9%;当前气候条件下,樟子松的适宜分布区主要位于中国大兴安岭地区,总适宜区面积占中国总面积的6.72%;未来时期不同气候条件下樟子松潜在分布区面积减少,质心向西北高纬度和西南降水量充沛地区迁移。【结论】以年为单位的温度和降水是樟子松分布的主要影响因子,当前樟子松的适生区主要在中国大兴安岭地区,未来樟子松分布区有向现有分布区的西北和西南地区迁移的趋势。图1表7参29。[Objective]This study aims to predict the potential distribution and migration of Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica under different climate conditions in China and to determine the main environmental variables affecting its distribution,so as to provide theoretical basis for rational introduction and protection of P.sylvestris var.mongolica.[Method]Based on 200 distribution points and 20 environmental variables,the potential distribution of P.sylvestris var.mongolica under current climate conditions was simulated by using ENMeval packet optimization maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)in R language and ArcGIS spatial analysis technology.Through Pearson correlation analysis and variance inflation factor analysis combined with the screening of environmental factors based on pre-modeling results,Jackknife test and correlation coefficient were integrated to analyze the dominant limiting factors of P.sylvestris var.mongolica,and predict the change trend of suitable habitat under three climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585)from the current to the future(2050s and 2100s).[Result]The area under ROC curve of the MaxEnt model was greater than 0.94,indicating that the model had high accuracy and could better predict the potential distribution of P.sylvestris var.mongolica.The main factors affecting the distribution were the average temperature in the coldest quarter,seasonal variation of precipitation,minimum temperature in the coldest month,seasonal variation coefficient of temperature,average temperature in the driest quarter and maximum temperature in the hottest month,with a cumulative contribution rate of 92.9%.Under the current climate conditions,the suitable distribution area of P.sylvestris var.mongolica was mainly located in the Greater Hinggan Mountains of China,and the total suitable area accounted for 6.72%of the total area of China.In the future,the potential distribution area of P.sylvestris var.mongolica would decrease under different climatic conditions,and the centroid would migrate to the northwest area at high

关 键 词：樟子松 最大熵模型 气候情境 响应 分布区 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]