数字经济、技术创新与中国省域经济韧性  

Digital Economy,Technological Innovation and Resilience of China's Provincial Economy

作　　者：魏峰[1] 殷文星 Wei Feng;Yin Wenxing(School of Big Data and Statistics,Anhui University,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学大数据与统计学院,合肥230000

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2023年第6期36-47,共12页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基于马克思劳动生产力理论的技术进步测度方法研究”(项目编号:19BJL004)。

摘　　要：提升经济韧性有助于实现中国式现代化与经济高质量发展。本文基于2008~2021年中国省域面板数据,将研究区间划分为金融危机抵抗期、金融危机恢复期和新冠肺炎疫情抵抗期,分别从分周期短期经济韧性与长期经济韧性角度,运用地理探测器与空间计量模型分析数字经济与技术创新对经济韧性的影响作用。研究发现,从不同周期看,技术创新对抵抗力与恢复力的驱动作用皆较大,而数字经济对抵抗力的驱动作用则更大。从长期看,在不同权重矩阵下,数字经济与技术创新皆对经济韧性有显著的促进作用且存在正向的空间溢出效应,此结论在更换核心解释变量以及被解释变量时依然成立。进一步做中介效应检验发现,数字经济可通过提升技术创新来增强中国省域经济韧性。因此,在我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定因素增多的时期,要着力发挥好数字经济与技术创新对经济韧性的正向效应,形成双重因素合力为经济韧性提高提供支撑的有利局面,推动现代化建设行稳致远。Improving economic resilience will help achieve Chinese-style modernization and high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of China's provinces from 2008 to 2021,the research interval is divided into the period of financial crisis resistance,the period of financial crisis recovery and the period of COVID-19 resistance.From the perspective of cyclical short-term economic resilience and long-term economic resilience,the paper analyzes the impact of digital economy and technological innovation on economic resilience by using geographic detector and spatial econometric model.It is found that technological innovation has a greater driving effect on resistance and resilience in different cycles,while digital economy has a greater driving effect on resistance.In the long run,under different weight matrices,digital economy and technological innovation can significantly promote economic resilience and have positive spatial spillover effect.This conclusion held true when the core explanatory variables and the explained variables were changed.By further testing the intermediary effect,it is found that the digital economy can enhance the resilience of China's provincial economy by enhancing technological innovation.Therefore,at a time when strategic opportunities,risks and challenges coexist and uncertainties are on the rise in China's development,we need to harness the positive effect of digital economy and technological innovation on economic resilience,create a favorable situation in which these two factors work together to provide support for economic resilience,and ensure steady progress in modernization.

关 键 词：数字经济 技术创新 经济韧性 金融危机 新冠肺炎疫情 中国式现代化 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]