经济政策不确定性对企业并购的影响研究  

The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Firm Mergers and Acquisitions

作　　者：潘文泳 朱小明 PAN Wenyong;ZHU Xiaoming(School of Business,Macao University of Sclence and Technology,Macao 99078.China;Economic and Trade College,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,China)

机构地区：[1]澳门科技大学商学院,中国澳门999078 [2]广西财经学院经济与贸易学院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期36-44,共9页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’沿线国家会计基础设施建设对中国企业海外并购影响研究”(18BJY015);2020年度广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目“董事责任险对企业并购的影响研究”(2020KY16024)。

摘　　要：随着中美贸易摩擦、全球新冠肺炎疫情等事件的发生,国内外经济政策不确定性持续上升,企业如何对日渐上升的不确定性做出反应?已有文献较多地分析了经济政策不确定性对企业投资的影响,但对企业并购的分析较少。基于2000~2019年上市企业层面的并购数据,构造了中国经济政策不确定性指数,运用泊松极大似然估计法实证研究了经济政策不确定性对企业并购数量的影响。结果表明,经济政策不确定性的上升对企业并购数量产生了显著的正面影响;从经济意义上看,经济政策不确定性上升10个单位,企业并购数量增加1.9%。研究结论在替换度量指标和样本、改变函数形式、考虑内生性问题后保持稳健。影响机制检验表明,较高的经济政策不确定性倒逼处于不利环境的企业寻求并购,以改善自己的经营环境和绩效。With the occurrence of China-US trade frictions and the COVID-19,the economic policy uncertainty in both China and the world continues to rise.How can firms respond to the rising uncertainty?Previous litera-ture has mainly analyzed the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment,but the impact on corporate mergers and acquisitions is underexplored.Based on the merger and acquisition data of listed firms from 2000 to 2019 and Chinese Economic Policy Uncertainty Index constructed by Davis et al.(2019)。this pa-per empirically studies the efect of economic policy uncertainty on firms'merger and acquisition deals with the approach of Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation.The results show that the increase in economic policy uncertainty has a significantly positive impact on firms'merge and acquisition deals;Namely.if econom-ic policy uncertainty increases10 units,the firms'merger and acquisition deals would increase 1.9%.Our re-sults remain robust after replacing measurement and samples,changing the function forms,and considering the potential endogeneity.Mechanism test shows that high economic policy uncertainty forces firms stuck in unfavorable situations to seek mergers and acquisitions to improve their operating environment and performance.This paper not only reveals the channels through which economic policy uncertainty afese corpo-rate mergers and acqwisitions,but also proposes new directions for future research.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 企业并购 企业投资 泊松极大似然估计 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]