漳河水库观音寺大坝近21年垂直变形趋势与影响因素分析  

Analysis of the trend of vertical deformation and influencing factors of Guanyinsi Dam in Zhanghe Reservoir over the past 21 years

作　　者：张峰 季文娟 彭丹芬[2] ZHANG Feng;JI Wenjuan;PENG Danfen(Dam Safety Monitoring and Termite Control Center of Hubei Provincial Department of Water Resources,Wuhan 430071,China;Hubei Zhanghe Engineering Management Bureau,Jingmen 448000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省水利厅大坝安全监测与白蚁防治中心,湖北武汉430071 [2]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448000

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2023年第5期63-71,共9页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

摘　　要：准确评估水库大坝变形趋势及影响因素对水库安全管理具有重要意义。本文根据漳河水库观音寺大坝2000—2020年垂直位移监测资料,分析了大坝的垂直位移变形趋势,并利用SPSS软件采用逐步回归分析方法,对垂直位移进行了统计建模。结果表明,观音寺大坝各测点表现为下沉方向的持续变化,符合土石坝坝体沉降量与坝高成正比的关系,遵循心墙土坝垂直位移的基本变化规律;大坝垂直位移受时效影响权重达85.0%~97.2%,具有较高的解释度,水位因素对垂直位移有一定影响,但影响不大,温度因素对垂直位移没有影响。该分析方法和结论可为大型水库大坝安全监测工作及安全管理提供参考。Accurately assessing the trend of dam deformation and its influencing factors is of great significance for the safety management of reservoirs.Based on the vertical displacement monitoring data of Guanyinsi Dam in Zhanghe Reservoir from 2000 to 2020,this paper analyzes the trend of vertical displacement deformation of the dam and uses SPSS software to conduct stepwise regression analysis to statistically model the vertical displacement.The results show that the various measuring points of Guanyinsi Dam exhibit continuous downward changes,which is consistent with the proportional relationship between the settlement of earth-rock dams and the dam height,and follows the basic change law of vertical displacement of core earth-rock dam.The ratio of dam vertical displacement affected by aging is between 85.0%to 97.2%related to aging,with a high degree of explanation.Water level has a certain influence on vertical displacement,but the influence is not significant,while temperature has no effect on vertical displacement.This analysis method and conclusion can provide reference for the safety monitoring and management of large-scale reservoir dams.

关 键 词：观音寺大坝 垂直位移 变形趋势 影响因素 统计模型 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]