AHP-VIKOR在风电项目后评价中的应用  

Application of AHP-VIKOR in Post-evaluation of Wind Power Projects

作　　者：马文静 李薇[2] 阳佳彬 潘张榕 MA Wenjing;LI Wei;YANG Jiabin;PAN Zhangrong(CHN Energy Technology&Economics Research Institute,Beijing 102211,China;MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;College of Nuclear Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]国家能源集团技术经济研究院,北京102211 [2]教育部资源与环境系统优化重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京102206 [3]华北电力大学核科学与工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《广东电力》2023年第5期1-9,共9页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划战略性国际科技创新合作重点专项(2018YFE0208400)。

摘　　要：项目后评价是风电项目进行决策管理的一个非常重要的手段。传统后评价方法主要是通过定量和定性的方法,对项目的实际成果和效益进行分析,但是由于不同项目之间的指标存在冗余情况,采用单一的后评价方法难以客观合理地对项目进行评价。为此,提出层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)-直觉模糊多属性决策方法(VIKOR)综合评价方法,以4个风电项目实施情况的对比分析和评估为研究案例,首先基于AHP确定各个指标的权重,并基于灰色关联度分析(grey relation analysis,GRA)法评估单个项目竣工投产后实际运行状况与预期目标之间的差别,再利用VIKOR方法完成不同项目对应不同评价指标的得分情况和综合排序,完成风电项目包括立项规范性、准备充分性和实施有效性的综合评估。Project post-evaluation is very important for decision management of the wind power projects.Traditional post-evaluation methods mainly analyze the actual results and benefits of the projects through quantitative and qualitative methods.However,due to the redundancy of indicators among different projects,it is difficult to evaluate projects objectively and reasonably by using a single post-evaluation method.Therefore,this paper proposes the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-VIKOR based comprehensive evaluation method,taking the comparative analysis and evaluation of the implementation of four wind power projects as the study cases.Firstly,it uses the AHP to determine the weight of each indicator and the grey relation analysis(GRA)to evaluate the difference between the actual operation status and the expected target after the completion and operation of a single project.Then it uses the VIKOR method to complete the scores and comprehensive ranking of different projects according to different evaluation indicators,and then complete the comprehensive evaluation on the wind power projects,including project initiation standardization,preparation adequacy,and implementation effectiveness.

关 键 词：层次分析法 灰色关联度 VIKOR 风电 后评价 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]