基于InVEST和CA-Markov模型的瓯江流域“水资源-社会-生态”协调发展评价  

Evaluation of“water resources,society and ecology”coordination development in Oujiang Basin based on InVEST and CA-Markov model

作　　者：周月娇 董增川[1] 李琼 郑大成 刘彪 朱圣男 刘宇鹏 ZHOU Yuejiao;DONG Zengchuan;LI Qiong;ZHENG Dacheng;LIU Biao;ZHU Shengnan;LIU Yupeng(College of hydrology and water resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Wenzhou Hydrology Management Center,Wenzhou 325000,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]温州市水文管理中心,浙江温州325000

出　　处：《水利经济》2023年第3期29-33,50,124,共7页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：温州市水文高质量先行区建设项目(WZSW-GZLFZXXQ-202105)。

摘　　要：为寻求区域的可持续发展,基于InVEST和CA-Markov模型分析了不同时期瓯江流域生境质量,通过构建“水资源-社会-生态”耦合系统的评价指标体系对瓯江流域协调发展状况进行评价。结果表明:2000—2020年瓯江流域内以高生境质量区为主,但生境质量水平呈下降趋势,2030年下降幅度将进一步增加;流域内高生境质量区集中于西南侧,低生境质量区主要在温州龙湾区以及丽水市市中心附近;“水资源-社会-生态”系统建设水平与耦合协调度向好发展,水资源子系统的建设状况是影响整体水平的关键因素。提出了科学引导土地利用、合理规划水资源配置、优化产业结构三方面改进措施,以实现区域生态保护与高质量发展。Exploring the coordinated development state of water resources and“social-ecological”system is an important measure to seek regional sustainable development.Based on the CA-Markov model and InVEST model,this paper analyzes the habitat quality of the Oujiang Basin in different periods.The evaluation index system of“water-resources-society-ecology”coupling system was constructed to evaluate the coordinated development of the Oujiang basin.The results showed that there were mainly high habitat quality areas in the Oujiang basin from 2000 to 2020,but the habitat quality level showed a downward trend,and the decline was further increased in 2030.The high quality area in the basin is concentrated in the southwest side.The areas with low habitat quality were mainly located in Longwan District of Wenzhou and near downtown Lishui City.The construction level and coupling coordination degree of“water resources,society and ecology”system are developing well,and the construction status of water resources subsystem is a key factor affecting the overall level.The improvement measures are proposed of guiding land use scientifically,rational planning of water resources allocation,optimizing the three aspects of industrial structure,in order to guide regional ecological protection and high quality development.

关 键 词：“水资源-社会-生态”耦合系统 生境质量 协调发展 InVEST模型 CA-Markov模型 瓯江流域 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]