2013至2018年北京地区1型糖尿病发病率性别差异及预测  

Gender differences and the prediction of type 1 diabetes incidence rate in Beijing from 2013 to 2018

作　　者：刘畅[1,2] 郭默宁 袁颖超 郑建鹏 杨金奎 Liu Chang;Guo Moning;Yuan Yingchao;Zheng Jianpeng;Yang Jinkui(Department of Endocrinology,Beijing Tongren Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100730,China;Beijing Diabetes Institute,Beijing 100730,China;Beijing Municipal Health Big Data and Policy Research Center,Beijing 100034,China)

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学附属北京同仁医院内分泌科,北京100730 [2]北京市糖尿病研究所,北京100730 [3]北京市卫生健康大数据与政策研究中心,北京100034

出　　处：《首都医科大学学报》2023年第3期370-374,共5页Journal of Capital Medical University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(8151101058,81930019)。

摘　　要：目的分析2013年至2018年北京地区常住人口1型糖尿病(type 1 diabetes,T1DM)发病率的性别差异。方法2013年至2018年,北京市16个区153个中心(常住人口每年约2012万)共有新发T1DM患者4275例。采用泊松回归、Joinpoint等方法计算T1DM的年发病率,各年龄组、性别的年发病率,评估T1DM发病率趋势及其与年龄、性别的关系。使用灰色预测模型1,1[Gray Model 1,1,GM(1,1)],按性别预测未来10年T1DM的发病率。结果2013—2018年这6年内北京地区常住人口中T1DM的年发病率从3.10/(10万)[95%CI:3.10(2.90,3.30)]增加到3.60/(10万)[95%CI:3.60(3.56,3.86)]。男性和女性T1DM的发病率均增加,但女性增加的幅度更大[男性年发病率变化(annual percentage change,APC):3.96%,女性APC:4.4%(P<0.05)]。性别是影响T1DM发病率的危险因素。按这一趋势到2024年,北京T1DM年发病率男性将增加到4.96/(10万),女性将增加到5.10/(10万)。结论北京市的T1DM发病率相对较低,男性和女性的T1DM发病率均迅速增加,女性发病率升高更明显,迫切需要社会和政府的关注及进一步的监测和研究,以更好地了解可能的风险因素并制定预防策略。Objective To study the incidence of type 1 diabetes(T1DM)among males and females among permanent residents in Beijing from 2013 to 2018.Methods From 2013 to 2018,4275 new patients with T1DM were diagnosed in 153 centers in 16 districts of Beijing(representing a permanent population of about 20.12 million people per year).The annual incidence of T1DM and the annual incidence rate with 95%confidence interval(CI)by age group and gender were calculated by using Poisson regression and other methods.The relationship was evaluated between the incidence trend of T1DM and the age and gender.We use the gray prediction model(1,1)[GM(1,1)]to predict the incidence of T1DM in the future.Results The incidence of T1DM in the permanent population of Beijing increased from 3.10 per 100000[95%CI:3.10(2.90,3.30)]to 3.60 per 100000[95%CI:3.60(3.56,3.86)]within 6 years.The incidence of T1DM increased in both male and female[annual percentage change(APC)in male:3.96%,APC in female:4.4%,(P<0.05)].Gender was a risk factor affecting the incidence of T1DM.By 2024,the incidence of new T1DM in Beijing would increase to 4.96 per 100000 for male,and for female 5.10 per 100000.Conclusion The incidence of T1DM in Beijing is relatively low,but the incidence of T1DM in both males and females is increasing rapidly.The incidence of males is higher than that of females,but the incidence of females is more obvious,which urgently needs the attention of the society and the government.Further surveillance and research is needed to better understand possible risk factors and develop prevention strategies.

关 键 词：北京市 1型糖尿病 发病率 预测发病率 

分 类 号：R589[医药卫生—内分泌]