我国典型5省煤电发展现状与转型优化潜力研究  

Research on the development status and transformation optimization potential of coal power in five typical provinces of China

作　　者：吴迪[1] 康俊杰[1] 王可珂 杨富强[1] 杨雷[1] WU Di;KANG Junjie;WANG Keke;YANG Fuqiang;YANG Lei(Institute of Energy,Peking University,Haidian,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学能源研究院,北京市海淀区100871

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2023年第5期18-29,共12页China Coal

摘　　要：地方省份是我国电力系统中长期规划和运行控制的主体,选择山东、山西、福建、湖南和海南这5个典型省份进行了煤电转型优化潜力和路径的分析研究。基于近期和中期上述各省电力的供需形势,在考虑省政府的电力发展规划、电力电量平衡和各省非煤资源发展潜力的约束下,依托于煤电机组装机大小、服役年龄、供电煤耗等要素的评估分析,为不同省份煤电机组提供了转型优化发展路径,并量化了相关结果。由于5省电力行业发展现状、清洁能源禀赋条件、经济发展水平、地理位置等各不相同,煤电合理装机规模和转型优化路径存在巨大差异,因此对5省煤电转型优化提出了不同的、有针对性的政策建议。Local provinces are the main entities in the medium and long-term planning and operation control of China's power system.Five typical provinces,Shandong,Shanxi,Fujian,Hunan and Hainan,were selected for analysis and research on the potential and path of coal power transformation optimization.Based on the supply and demand situation of electricity in the above five provinces in the near and medium term,and considering the constraints of the provincial government's power development plan,power and electricity balance,and the development potential of non-coal resources in each province,and relying on the evaluation and analysis of factors such as the installed capacity,service duration,and coal consumption of coal power,this paper provides a transformation and optimization development path for coal power units in different provinces,and quantifies the relevant results.Due to the differences in the current development status,clean energy conditions,economic development level,and geographical location of the power industry in the five provinces,there are significant differences in the reasonable installed capacity and transformation optimization paths of coal power,on the basis,different and targeted policy recommendations have been proposed for the transformation and optimization of coal power in the five provinces.

关 键 词：煤电发展 典型省份 装机容量 转型优化 潜力研究 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]