稳经济目标下的绿色低碳转型逻辑  

Logic of Green-Oriented Transition Under the Goal of Economic Stability

作　　者：庄贵阳[1] 王思博 陈寅岚 ZHUANG Gui-yang;WANG Si-bo;CHEN Yin-Ian

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《改革》2023年第5期18-28,共11页Reform

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国2030年碳排放提前达峰行动方案研究”(21ZDA085)。

摘　　要：我国经济发展面临多重内生压力与外生冲击,稳经济保民生成为当下第一要务。站在人与自然和谐共生的高度谋划发展,稳经济政策措施既要立足当下,应对短期经济低迷的困境,又要着眼长远,保持生态文明建设的战略定力,为经济社会发展注入可持续绿色新动能。从短期目标来看,通过投资、消费、出口“三驾马车”纾困帮扶市场主体是稳增长的政策着力点。考虑新冠疫情等的冲击,投资的稳增长效应更值得期待,也是将绿色低碳转型纳入稳经济政策的重要切入点。国家出台的稳经济政策措施,涵盖绿色低碳转型的积极内容,但也存在潜在的碳锁定风险。经济下行不仅导致结构性失业与绿色就业不足,而且使得绿色低碳转型财政承压明显,低碳减排与经济发展之间的关系较难平衡。借鉴欧美等发达国家在绿色复苏、零碳竞争、公正转型等方面的经验,未来我国不仅要将绿色投资作为稳经济政策的重要抓手,而且要从供给数量与结构匹配入手破解当前失业困境,通过加快零碳产业布局提升国际市场竞争力,力争在稳经济目标下推动绿色低碳转型。Economic development is facing multiple endogenous pressures and exogenous shocks in China.Economic stability and maintain people's well-being has become the top priority.Under the requirement of planing development at the height of harmonious coexistence between man and nature,economic stability policies and measures should not only focus on the present and deal with the plight of short-term economic downturn,but also think carefully about the long-term,maintain the strategic focus on ecological civilization construction,and inject new momentum of sustainable green into economic and social development.The economic stability policies and measures introduced by the country cover the positive aspects of green-oriented transition,but have potential carbon lock-in risks.In addition,the economic downturn not only leads to structural unemployment and insufficient green employment,but also increases the financial pressure of green-oriented transition.It is difficult to balance the relationship between carbon emission reduction and economic development Drawing on the experience of developed countries such as Europe and America in green recovery,zero-carbon competition,and fair transformation.In the future,we not only needs to consider green investment as an important lever for stabilizing the economy,but also needs to address the current unemployment dilemma by matching supply quantity and structure,as well as accelerate the layout of zero-carbon industries,thereby enhancing international market competitiveness,and strive to promote green-oriented transition under the goal of stabilizing the economy.

关 键 词：稳经济 稳增长 “双碳” 绿色低碳转型 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]