基于CMIP6气候模式的东北三省农业水热资源时空变化特征  

Spatial and Temporal Change Characteristics of Agricultural Precipitation and Heat Resources in Northeast China Based on CMIP6

作　　者：张晨霞 陈方正 黄明霞[2] 李林超 肖登攀 冯璞玉 刘德立 胡克林 ZHANG Chenxia;CHEN Fangzheng;HUANG Mingxia;LI Linchao;XIAO Dengpan;FENG Puyu;LIU Deli;HU Kelin(College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100093,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100093,China;College of Natural Resources and Environment,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;School of Geographic Sciences,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050024,China;NSW Department of Primary Industries,Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute,Wagga Wagga 2650,Australia)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100093 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100093 [3]西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌712100 [4]河北师范大学地理科学学院,河北石家庄050024 [5]澳大利亚新南威尔士州初级产业部Wagga Wagga农业研究所,Wagga Wagga 2650

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2023年第3期94-103,共10页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：中科院先导项目“主要作物产量预测和种植适宜性评价”(XDA28060202);中央高效基础科研业务费项目“东北春大豆单产韧性时空分异格局与关键土壤因子缓冲机制”(2022TC110)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化深刻影响农业水热资源分布,预估未来农业水热资源的时空变化有助于应对气候变化带来的机遇和挑战。该文基于CMIP6中的27个气候模式和东北三省85个气象站的观测数据,采用泰勒图法评估新一代全球气候模式对东北三省气候变化的模拟性能,在此基础上分析SSP245和SSP585情景下东北三省农业水热资源的时空变化特征。结果表明:①CMIP6中能较好模拟东北三省气候变化的模式为MRIE、ACC2和GFD2,且经过较优模式等权重集合修订后,模拟性能得到提升;②未来农业热量资源显著增加,SSP585情景下的增温速率(0.69℃/(10 a))明显高于SSP245情景(0.26℃/(10 a)),东北三省北部的增温幅度高于南部,东部高于西部,沿海高于内陆,增幅高值区位于大兴安岭;③未来农业降水资源有所增加,但波动较大,到21世纪末期,SSP245和SSP585情景下降水量较基准期分别增加27.8%和22.1%,呈由东南向西北递减的空间分布格局,且东部降水变率普遍高于西部,辽宁东南部将成为降水增加最显著地区。Global climate change has not only profoundly altered the precipitation and heat resources of agriculture,but also widely influenced agricultural production.Therefore,predicting the spatial and temporal changes in agricultural precipitation and heat resources in the future is conductive to addressing opportunities and challenges presented by climate change.Based on 27 general circulation models(GCMs)in CMIP6 and 85 meteorological stations in Northeast China,this paper used Taylor diagram to evaluate the simulation performance of the new generation of GCMs for climate change in Northeast China.According to the evaluation model,this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal change characteristics of agricultural precipitation and heat resources in Northeast China under SSP245 and SSP585.The results are showed as follows.①The models in CMIP6 that can simulate climate change in Northeast China better are MRIE,ACC2 and GFD2,and simulation performance has been improved after the revision of the equal-weight ensemble of better models.②In the future,the agricultural heat resources will increase significantly,and the warming rate under the SSP585 scenario(0.69℃/(10 a))is significantly higher than that under the SSP245 scenario(0.26℃/(10 a)).Spatially,the warming rate in the north will be higher than that in the south,the east will be higher than that in the west,and the coast will be higher than that in the inland,while the high value area of increase will be located in the Daxing′an Mountain range.③Although future agricultural precipitation resources will increase,they will fluctuate greatly.At the end of the 21st century,compared with the baseline period,precipitation under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios will increase by 27.8%and 22.1%,respectively.Spatially,there will be a decreasing distribution pattern from southeast to northwest,and the precipitation variability is generally higher in the east than that in the west,while southeastern Liaoning will become the region with the most significant increase in pr

关 键 词：CMIP6 东北三省 气候变化 水热资源 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]