粮食主产区农业碳排放的动态演进及驱动因素研究  

Research on the Dynamic Evolution and Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Major Grain-Producing Areas

作　　者：贺青 张俊飚[1,3] HE Qing;ZHANG Junbiao(Department of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;Department of Economics and Management,Hubei University of Education,Wuhan Hubei 430205,China;Agricultural Green and Low Carbon Development Laboratory,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北第二师范学院经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430205 [3]华中农业大学农业绿色低碳发展实验室,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第6期123-128,162,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于经济高质量发展的农业自然资源高效利用研究”(20AZD091);中国博士后基金项目“供给侧改革视角下农业产业链与科技创新链协同机制研究”(2018M632888)。

摘　　要：基于1998—2019年我国粮食主产区13个省份的数据,测算了粮食主产区的农业碳排放,并进行了动态演进分析、LMDI因素分解和公平性评价,研究发现:(1)从核密度动态演变来看,粮食主产区的农业碳排放总量呈现较大幅度提高,但省际之间的差距逐渐缩小。(2)从LMDI因素分解来看,经济因素为农业碳排放的增加因素,而效率因素和劳动力因素可以减少农业碳排放。(3)从农业碳排放的公平性来看,我国粮食主产区的种植业具有“高碳—低效益”的特点,畜牧业则呈现“低碳—高效益”的特点。最后提出加大农业技术应用、优化产业结构,根据地区经济发展,因地制宜地制订农业碳减排策略。Based on the data of 13 provinces in major grain-producing areas from 1998 to 2019,the agricultural carbon emissions are calculated,the dynamic evolutions are analyzed,LMDI factor decomposition and fairness evaluation are carried out.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of the dynamic evolution of nuclear density,the total agricultural carbon emissions in the major grain-producing areas increased significantly,but the gap between provinces gradually narrowed.(2)From the perspective of LMDI factor decomposition,economic factors are the factors that increase agricultural carbon emissions,while efficiency factors and labor factors can reduce agricultural carbon emissions.(3)From the perspective of fairness of agricultural carbon emissions,the planting industry in grain-producing areas is characterized by“high carbon low efficiency”,while the livestock industry is characterized by“low carbon high efficiency”.It also proposes to increase the application of agricultural technology,optimize the industrial structure,and formulate agricultural carbon emission reduction strategies according to regional economic development.

关 键 词：粮食主产区 农业碳排放 驱动因素分解 公平性评价 

分 类 号：F303.3[经济管理—产业经济] F062.2