黄河源区水文预报的关键科学问题  被引量:17

Key scientific issues of hydrological forecast in the headwater area of Yellow River

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作  者:雍斌 张建云[1,3] 王国庆 YONG Bin;ZHANG Jianyun;WANG Guoqing(National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区:[1]水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098

出  处:《水科学进展》2023年第2期159-171,共13页Advances in Water Science

基  金:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC3201100);国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243229)。

摘  要:黄河源区水文预报对龙羊峡、刘家峡等黄河上游梯级水库群的洪水资源化调度乃至整个黄河流域的水旱灾害防御都起着举足轻重的作用。然而,由于降水的地面观测严重匮乏、且缺少适用于高寒山区的专用水文模型,源区水文预报成为长期困扰黄河洪水/径流业务预报的难题。在回顾国内外相关研究的基础上,从高海拔缺资料地区的降水观测与降水预报、寒区水文模型构建与气象水文耦合系统集成、高原降水发生的气象成因与形成机制3个方面,评价了黄河源区水文预报的当前现状与技术水平,提出了黄河源区水文预报面临的关键科学问题;指出新一代多源降水信息融合与同化、高寒区特殊产汇流模型构建、无缝隙气象水文集合预报、强降水与连阴雨的多影响天气系统解析等,是当前黄河源区水文预报的研究重点与发展方向。The hydrological forecast for the headwater area of Yellow River is of vital importance to the flood water resources utilization through optimal operation of cascade reservoirs over the Upper Yellow River such as Longyangxia and Liujiaxia,even to the prevention of flood and drought disasters for the entire Yellow River basin.However,the hydrological forecast in the source region is one of difficult problems in the current operational forecast of flood and discharge of Yellow River,due to the critical deficiency of ground-based rainfall observations and the lack of special hydrological model for high and cold mountain areas.This paper first reviewed the domestic and international related studies and then demonstrated the current status and technical level of hydrological forecast in the headwater area of Yellow River from three aspects including precipitation observation and precipitation forecast over ungauged areas with high altitudes,construction of hydrological model in cold regions and integration of meteorological and hydrological coupling forecast system,and meteorological genesis and formation mechanism of plateau precipitation occurrence.Subsequently,several key scientific issues existed in current hydrological operation forecast are systematically analyzed.Finally,it is suggested that the future studies of hydrological forecast in the headwater area of Yellow River focus on several important directions,such as the new-generation multi-source precipitation information fusion and assimilation,the development of specific hydrologic model for high and cold regions,the seamless ensemble forecast technique based on the meteorological and hydrological coupling,the analysis of multiple weather systems triggering heavy precipitation and continuous overcast rain.

关 键 词:水文预报 降水 水文模型 天气系统 气象水文耦合 黄河源区 

分 类 号:P333[天文地球—水文科学]

 

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