中国粮食供需形势:历史回顾、风险挑战与政策启示  

China's Food Supply and Demand Situation:Historical Review,Risk Challenges and Policy Implications

作　　者：李俊茹 姜长云[2] LI Junru;JIANG Changyun

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国宏观经济研究院产业经济与技术经济研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期168-179,共12页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：中宣部“文化名家暨‘四个一批’人才自主选题资助项目‘实施乡村振兴战略、推动农业农村经济高质量发展的重大问题和跟踪研究’”。

摘　　要：系统梳理新中国成立以来不同历史时期粮食市场供需形势,剖析当前及中长期内中国粮食供需面临的风险挑战,对优化粮食安全政策、更好保障国家粮食安全具有重要现实意义。随着我国粮食供需关系的不断发展演变,目前阶段已实现紧平衡状态,但结构性矛盾仍然突出。当前及中长期内我国粮食市场仍面临着资源环境约束趋紧、多数时期国际国内粮价倒挂、种粮成本高收益低以及外部不确定性增强等风险挑战。在国内外环境日趋复杂、全球粮食产业链供应链风险加大的背景下,应将提升粮食生产能力、供给保障能力作为首要任务,确保我国粮食供需平衡。具体提出如下建议:(1)加强可持续生产能力建设,切实保障国家粮食安全;(2)统筹利用国内外市场资源,筑牢国内粮食安全保障体系;(3)健全完善粮食支持政策体系,提高种粮抓粮积极性;(4)积极开拓食物来源渠道,降低粮食损耗与浪费。This paper systematically reviews the supply and demand situation in the food market in different historical periods since the founding of New China,and analyzes the risks and challenges facing China's food supply and demand at present and in the medium and long term,which is of great practical significance for optimizing food security policies and better ensuring national food security.With the continuous development and evolution of China's food supply and demand,the current stage has achieved a state of tight balance,but the structural contradictions are prominent.At present and in the medium and long term,China's food market is still facing the challenges of tightening resource and environmental constraints,most periods of international and domestic food prices being inverted,growing food at high cost and low returns,as well as increased external uncertainty and other risk challenges.Under the background of increasingly complex domestic and international environment and increased risk in the supply chain of the global food industry chain,we should make it a priority to enhance food production capacity and supply security capacity to ensure a balance between supply and demand of food in China.Suggestions are as follows:(1)strengthen the construction of sustainable production capacity to effectively guarantee national food security;(2)coordinate the use of domestic and foreign market resources to build a solid domestic food security guarantee system;(3)improve and perfect the food support policy system to enhance the enthusiasm of food cultivation and food grasping;(4)actively develop food source channels to reduce food loss and waste.

关 键 词：粮食产量 粮食贸易 粮食安全 结构性矛盾 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]