社会资本、非正规融资与农户规模经营——基于反事实框架的因果中介分析  

Social Capital,Informal Financing and Farmers'Scale Operation——Causal Mediation Analysis Based on Counterfactual Framework

作　　者：张志新[1] 李增辉 周亚楠 ZHANG Zhixin;LI Zenghui;ZHOU Yanan(School of Economics,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255012,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学经济学院,山东淄博255012

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2023年第3期59-70,共12页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：全国统计科学研究重点项目(2021LZ25)。

摘　　要：基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据(CLDS)在反事实框架下构建因果中介分析模型(CMA)研究社会资本、非正规融资与农户规模经营的作用机制。研究表明,农户人情覆盖面越广、人情支出越多,越显著促进农户转入土地规模经营,其作用机制是依靠人情往来形成的社会资本通过促进农户非正规融资进而促进农户规模经营。进一步引入农户正规融资进行调节中介效应分析发现,农户正规融资获取弱化了非正规融资对农户规模经营的促进作用,也因而减少了对人情关系的利用。在农户存在正规融资的状况下,非正规融资对农户规模经营不再有明显促进作用,正规融资表现出明显的替代作用。因此,应重视社会资本在促进农户规模经营中所起的作用,积极培育社会资本,引导文明、互助的乡风建设;此外,从长远看在加快农村正规金融体系建设的同时,还应规范发展非正规融资,并使其优势互补,更好地满足农户融资需求。A causal mediation analysis model(CMA)was constructed based on the 2016 China Labor Force Dynamics Survey data(CLDS)in a counterfactual framework to investigate the mechanism of the role of social capital,informal financing,and farmers'scale operation.The results showed that farmers who spent more on human interaction had a higher probability of choosing scale operation by renting land,the mechanism of which was that the social capital accumulated by farmers based on human interaction facilitated their access to informal financing,which in turn alleviated the financing constraint of scale operation.Further analyses using moderating mediating effects model revealed that farmers'access to formal finance weakened the role of informal finance in promoting farmers'scale operation and thus reduced the use of human relations.In addition,when formal financing was available,informal financing no longer had a significant effect on the promotion of farmers'scale operation.Formal financing has shown a significant substitution effect.Therefore,we should pay attention to the role of social capital in promoting farmers'scale operation,actively cultivate social capital,and guide the construction of civilized and mutually supportive countryside;in addition,the construction of the rural formal financial system should be accelerated while regulating the development of informal financing,and its advantages complementary should be made to better meet farmers'financing needs.

关 键 词：社会资本 非正规融资 农户规模经营 因果中介分析 

分 类 号：F323.4[经济管理—产业经济]