外部不确定性冲击与中国玉米价格波动  

External Uncertainty Shock and China's Corn Price Fluctuation

作　　者：刘帅[1,2] 刘丁语 LIU Shuai;LIU Dingyu(College of Economics and Management,Jilin Agriculture University,Changchun 130118,China;Research Center for Rural Economics in Major grain-producing areas,Jilin Agriculture University,Changchun 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学经济管理学院,长春130118 [2]吉林农业大学粮食主产区农村经济研究中心,长春130118

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2023年第3期115-128,共14页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY147)。

摘　　要：近年来,以新冠疫情为代表的外部不确定性因素等冲击造成中国玉米价格的大幅度波动。基于2018~2020年与2020~2022年中国玉米价格周度数据分别构建ARCH类模型和TVP-VAR模型,对比分析疫情发生前后玉米价格波动特征,综合考虑新冠疫情冲击、国际金融与期货市场等外部不确定性因素对玉米价格波动的影响。结果表明,中国玉米价格波动一直具有显著的集聚性和非对称性;而所选的外部因素在冲击大小、冲击方向和冲击持续时间上均存在差异,其中,疫情冲击对玉米价格波动影响最大。为稳定中国玉米价格,提出完善市场信息服务功能、加大科技投入以保障生产资料供应、实现新型贸易流通格局等政策建议。In recent years,the external uncertainties represented by the COVID-19 epidemic have caused significant fluctuations in China's corn prices.Based on the weekly data of China's corn prices from 2018 to 2020 and 2020 to 2022,ARCH model and TVP-VAR model are constructed respectively.After comparing and analyzing the characteristics of corn price fluctuations before and after the outbreak of the epidemic,the external uncertainties such as the impact of COVID-19,international financial and futures markets on corn price fluctuations are comprehensively considered.The results indicate that China's corn price volatility had shown a significant agglomeration and asymmetry.The selected external factors were different in impact size,impact direction and impact duration,among which the epidemic situation had the largest impact on the price fluctuation of corn.Finally,in order to stabilize the price of corn in China,some policy suggestions were put forward,such as improving the market information service function,increasing scientific and technological investment to ensure the supply of production materials,and realizing the new pattern of trade circulation.

关 键 词：外部不确定性冲击 玉米价格波动 ARCH类模型 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F307.1[经济管理—产业经济] F323.7