中国区域间贸易碳转移特征及其对碳中和的影响  

Carbon transfer characteristics and its effect on carbon neutrality of China's inter-regional trade

作　　者：张珂莉 何理[1,2] 卢宏玮 ZHANG Keli;HE Li;LU Hongwei(School of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206 [2]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第9期3407-3416,共10页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0507801)。

摘　　要：优化贸易模式对实现“碳达峰,碳中和”这一中长期计划至关重要。基于多区域投入产出模型和碳生态承载力模型,分析了我国2017年30个省份(本研究不含中国港澳台和西藏的统计数据)碳足迹和碳生态承载力剩余量的空间分布特征。研究表明:(1)经济或人口总量较大的省份(如广东、江苏、河南等)碳足迹较大,而万元GDP碳足迹较大的省份主要分布在西部和东北地区,虚拟碳主要是向经济发达的省份转移。(2)总体上,中国的区域间贸易不具备碳中和特征,但就地区而言,区域间贸易使得山西、内蒙古、辽宁、宁夏、新疆地区碳足迹有所降低,但碳中和程度较低(<20%);就行业而言,建筑业贸易的碳中和特征最为明显,特别是在东北三省。(3)经济富裕的几个省份碳减排压力较大,如:北京、天津等地的碳生态承载力出现赤字,而黑龙江、河南、吉林、山东碳生态承载力剩余量超过10×10^(8)t,碳减排压力较小。未来在制定相关政策时,应综合考虑省际间碳的转移特征,合理分配碳排放定额,以保障碳排放权交易市场的顺利运行。Human activities lead to global climate change,such as the greenhouse effect,heat island effect,global warming,glacier melting,sea-level rise,and so on.Among them,the global warming caused by the increase of greenhouse gas emissions has a great impact on human production and life.To control greenhouse gas emissions,many countries are exploring various ways to reduce carbon emissions,and hope to achieve the goal of"carbon neutrality"in the planned time.China is also one of them,our country has formulated a medium-and long-term plan to achieve carbon neutrality and is exploring ways to achieve this goal,such as adjusting the industrial and energy consumption structure,and changing the way of production and life.With the development of China's economy,regional trade interactions are frequent,and reducing carbon emissions through optimizing trade patterns should not be ignored.However,such studies are relatively few at present,and the carbon-neutral characteristics of trade in each province are not clear yet.This paper,based on the multi-regional input-output model,carbon-neutral model,and carbon ecological footprint model,analyzed the spatial distribution of carbon footprint,carbon transfer characteristics,and carbon ecological carrying capacity surplus of 30 Chinese provinces in 2017.Our results show that(1)provinces with larger populations or richer economies have larger carbon footprints,such as Guangdong,Jiangsu,and Henan,while in the provinces of western and northeastern China,the carbon footprints of 10000 yuan GDP are relatively larger.Virtual carbon is mainly transferred to economically affluent provinces.(2)For different provinces and sectors,the carbon-neutral characteristics of trade vary considerably.For the provinces,the trade reduced the carbon footprint in Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Ningxia,and Xingjiang,but the degree of carbon neutrality is relatively low(<20%).As far as the sectors are concerned,the carbon-neutral feature of the construction sector is the most obvious,especially in the northeas

关 键 词：碳足迹 碳中和 多区域投入产出模型 碳生态承载力 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] X196[经济管理—产业经济]