不同生态调控情景下人工林可持续经营收益研究  

Research on sustainable management benefits of plantation under different ecological regulation scenarios

作　　者：祁慧博[1,2] 杜萌萌 龙飞[1,2] 高晓玮 QI Huibo;DU Mengmeng;LONG Fei;GAO Xiaowei(College of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China;Zhejiang Province Key Cultivating Think Tank——Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300 [2]浙江省重点培育智库——浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,杭州311300

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第9期3607-3624,共18页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71803180);国家社会科学基金项目(22BGL168);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(18YJCZH140);浙江省软科学研究计划项目(2023C35077)。

摘　　要：在林业碳汇项目设计与作业标准基础上,将中国东北地区典型人工林生长与经营相关多源数据融合,运用系统动力学理论与方法,构建人工林生态经济系统模型,通过设计实施主伐/间伐、营造混交林、补植补造等不同生态调控情景,模拟并预测人工林可持续经营的生态—经济收益,以此掌握人工林生态调控机制,并为人工林可持续经营决策提供参考。模拟结果显示:(1)高初植密度能有效增汇,而低初植密度相比基准情景则减少了碳汇;(2)高主伐率使得木材收益大幅提升,而无主伐限制了木材收益,且从长期来看碳汇收益有限;(3)高密度-无主伐情景下的累计碳汇量最大,高密度-高主伐情景下的木材收益净现值和总收益净现值最大;若以可持续经营为目标,平衡生态收益和经济收益,则高密度-高主伐情景为理想选择,该情景的累计碳汇量相比高密度-无主伐情景损失有限,对应碳汇收益净现值为357.9万元,以5%贴现率计算的木材总收益和累计总收益的净现值分别为1219.35万元和1577.25万元。由此证实了以林业碳汇项目为依托,因地制宜地构建将造林、抚育、采伐、再造林更新于一体的人工林可持续经营项目,平衡发挥森林生态系统的综合功能,可纾解因无法采伐所带来的高额机会成本,在增汇的同时获得更大的木材收益。适度提高造林密度或造林面积可以增汇,但碳汇收益还取决于碳定价;此外,合理采伐也是实现人工林可持续经营的方式之一,可持续经营收益的关键在于科学的生态调控机制;应向平衡生态与经济收益的目标转变,加快林业经营理念转变与相关法律体系制定。Based on the design and operation standards of forestry carbon sequestration project,the multi-source data related to the growth and management of typical plantations in Northeast China are integrated,and the ecological and economic system model of plantations is constructed by using the theory and method of system dynamics.The ecological and economic benefits of sustainable management of plantations are simulated and predicted through the design and implementation of different ecological regulation scenarios such as main felling/thinning,creation of mixed forests,replanting to master the ecological regulation mechanism and provide reference for sustainable management decision of plantations.The simulation results show that:①high initial planting density can effectively increase the carbon sequestration,while low initial planting density can reduce the carbon sequestration compared with the baseline scenario;②High main cutting rate has greatly increased the timber benefits,while no main cutting has limited the timber benefits,and the carbon-sequestration benefits are limited in the long run;③The cumulative carbon sequestration of plantation is the largest under the scenario of high density and no main cutting,and the net present value of timber benefits and the net present value of total benefits of plantation are the largest under the scenario of high density and high main cutting.If we take sustainable management as the goal,balance ecological and economic benefits,and take the high density and high main cutting scenario as the optimal choice,the loss of the cumulative carbon sequestration is limited in this scenario compared with the high density and no main cutting scenario.The corresponding net present value of carbon-sequestration benefits is 3.579 million yuan,and the net present value of total timber benefits and cumulative total benefits at a discount rate of 5%are 12.1935 million yuan and 15.7725 million,respectively.It is confirmed that the sustainable management project of plantations integratin

关 键 词：人工林 生态调控 可持续经营收益 

分 类 号：S750[农业科学—森林经理学] F326.27[农业科学—林学]