基于最大熵模型预测气候变化下河蚬在中国的潜在分布  

Predicting potential distribution of Corbicula fluminea under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt model

作　　者：唐杨欣 皮杰[1] 刘新华 向建国[1] 曾聪 李德亮[1] TANG Yangxin;PI Jie;LIU Xinhua;XIANG Jianguo;ZENG Cong;LI Deliang(College of Fisheries,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China;School of Oceanography,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学水产学院,长沙410128 [2]上海交通大学海洋学院,上海200030

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第10期4250-4259,共10页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31772832);国家重点研发计划(2019YFD090060603);湖南省现代农业产业技术体系项目(湘农发[2019]105号)。

摘　　要：河蚬是一类在我国广泛分布的底栖贝类,具有重要的经济价值及生态价值。近年来,河蚬野生资源量锐减,了解河蚬在国内的潜在分布能为河蚬的保护和合理利用提供重要参考。基于河蚬在中国的136个分布点和8个环境因子,采用ENMeval包和biasfile优化后的最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测分别河蚬现代和未来(2041—2060年和2081—2100年)6个气候情景下的潜在分布。综合Jackknife检验、置换重要值和环境因子贡献率评估影响现代河蚬潜在分布的主要因子,比较未来气候情景下潜在适生区差异从而分析预测河蚬适宜分布的变化。结果表明:(1)优化后的MaxEnt模型预测准确度极高,平均AUC值为0.900±0.037,平均AUCDIFF值为0.019,现代河蚬潜在分布区域总面积为188.33×10^(4)km^(2),主要集中在长江流域、海河流域、淮河流域、珠江流域、东南沿海区域以及黄河流域下游和渤海湾沿岸区域。(2)影响河蚬潜在分布的主要环境因子为海拔、温度(年均温和温度年较差)和降水(年降水量)。(3)在未来6种气候情景下,河蚬主要潜在分布区有向北和向西移动的趋势,潜在适生区面积在SSP245情景下明显减少,而在SSP126和SSP585情景下呈先增加后减少趋势,这也表明气候变化下河蚬在我国的潜在分布存在缩减的风险。Corbicula fluminea is a benthic shellfish with substantially commercial and ecological value that is extensively dispersed in China.In recent years,the wild stocks of C.fluminea have been decreasing rapidly.Understanding the potential distribution of C.fluminea in China could be useful for their conservation and rational utilization.Based on 136 recorded points and 8 environmental factors in China,the MaxEnt model optimized by the ENMeval package and biasfile were used to predict the potential distribution of C.fluminea under six climate scenarios in the current and future(2041—2060 and 2081—2100,respectively).The Jackknife test,permutation importance,and environmental factor contribution rates were combined to examine the main factors determining the potential distribution of modern C.fluminea,and to compare the predicted distribution differences under future climate scenarios.The results showed that the optimized MaxEnt model was very accurate,with an average AUC(area under curve)value of 0.900±0.037 and an average AUCDIFF value of 0.019.The main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of C.fluminea were elevation,temperature(annual mean temperature and temperature annual range),and precipitation(annual precipitation).The overall area of potential distribution of C.fluminea was 188.33×10^(4)km^(2),with the majority of it concentrated in the Yangtze River basin,the Haihe River basin,the Huaihe River basin,the Pearl River basin,southeast coastal region,the Yellow River basin and the Bohai Bay coastal region.Under the six future climate scenarios,the main potential distribution areas of C.fluminea tended to move northwards and westwards,and the potential habitat area would decrease significantly under the SSP245 scenario,whereas it would increase and then decrease under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,implying that the potential distribution of C.fluminea in China would be at risk of contraction under climate change.

关 键 词：河蚬 气候变化 最大熵模型(MaxEnt) 潜在分布 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]