城市公共自行车租还不均衡的时空特征与影响因素  

Exploring the spatial-temporal characteristics and influence factors of supply-demand gap in bike sharing systems

作　　者：于二泽 周继彪 YU Er-ze;ZHOU Ji-biao(Beijing PKU ChinaFront High Technology Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100085,China;School of Transportation Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Ningbo University of Technology,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]北京北大千方科技有限公司,北京100085 [2]同济大学,交通运输工程学院,上海201804 [3]宁波工程学院,建筑与交通工程学院,宁波315211

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2023年第2期141-159,共19页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52002282);浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题项目(21NDJC163YB)。

摘　　要：准确掌握城市公共自行车租/还不均衡程度的时空规律,是引导用户参与自平衡调度、降低调度成本的重要前提。本文以宁波市中心城区公共自行车及其300 m缓冲区建成环境为研究对象,将站点的单车缺口值作为不均衡程度量化指标,基于大规模IC卡刷卡记录数据,利用K-means聚类与空间统计等手段,分析了全局站点单车缺口的时空变化规律及骑行OD特征,并构建考虑空间自相关的地理加权回归模型,对建成环境与单车缺口的内在联系进行实证研究。研究表明:①研究区域内公共自行车站点的工作日活跃特征分为2类:均衡型、就业导向型,休息日内站点特征分为3类:居住导向型、均衡型、休闲导向型;②工作日和休息日的站点单车缺口的全局Moran’s I分别为0.116和0.102,表现出显著的空间正相关性;③人口密度、主干路里程、居住社区型POI变量在早/晚高峰时段分别对单车缺口具有正向/负向影响,并且南北部地区影响效用差异明显;地铁站点的影响效用与以上变量相反,空间作用特征是随地铁2号线的走向呈梯度变化。Accurately understanding the spatial-temporal pattern of the supply-demand gap in bike sharing systems(BBSs)is an essential prerequisite for guiding users to participate in self-balancing scheduling and reducing scheduling costs.The primary objective of this study is to identify the spa-tial-temporal characteristics and quantify the factors affecting the supply-demand gap in BBSs.This study took as an example the BBS and built environment of a 300 m buffer zone in the central urban area of Ningbo city.The gap of pickup and drop-off was considered as the quantitative index of im-balance degree.K-means clustering and spatial statistical methods were first applied to analyze the spatial-temporal variation of the gap and bike cycling OD characteristics based on a large-scale IC card data.Then,a geographically weighted regression(GWR)model considering the spatial autocor-relation was proposed to determine the internal relationship between the built environment and sup-ply-demand gap.The results showed the following:①The pattern of BBS stations in Ningbo city falls into two categories:balanced stations and employment-oriented stations.The BBS stations dur-ing weekends fall into three categories:residential-oriented,balanced,and leisure-oriented stations.②The global Moran’s I values for the gap during workdays and weekends are 0.116 and 0.102,re-spectively,indicating that the spatial correlation is significantly positive.③Based on the GWR mod-el results,the population density,length of main road,and number of residential POI have a positive or negative influence on the global gap value in the morning or evening peak hours,and the differ-ence of impact utility between the north and south areas is significant.Moreover,the impact utility of subway stations is opposite to the above three variables,and the spatial effect characteristic is gradi-ent changing by the direction of Metro Line 2.

关 键 词：交通工程 时空特征 地理加权回归模型 公共自行车 租还车缺口 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]