海洋经济区域差异统计测度及潜在产出分析  

Statistical Measurement of Regional Differences in the Marine Economy and Analysis of Potential Output

作　　者：余颖博 张效莉 宋维玲[3] Yu Yingbo;Zhang Xiaoli;Song Weiling(Commission of State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration of Shanghai Fengxian District;Research Center for Marine Economics,Shanghai Ocean University;China Ocean Information Network)

机构地区：[1]上海市奉贤区国有资产监督管理委员会 [2]上海海洋大学海洋经济研究中心 [3]国家海洋信息中心

出　　处：《调研世界》2023年第5期44-55,共12页The World of Survey and Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于海洋强国战略目标的海洋经济统计核算、监测与评价体系研究”(21&ZD155)的资助。

摘　　要：随着海洋强国战略的深入推进实施,正确认识海洋经济区域差异和潜在产出水平,有利于推动海洋经济协调发展,实现海洋经济向高质量转型。本文以三大海洋经济圈为基本空间单元,以海洋三次产业为基本结构单元,采用劳动力加权变异系数法的空间分解和结构分解,测度2006—2019年我国海洋经济区域差异程度,进一步分解区域差异变化的结构效应、集中效应和综合效应;采用Hamilton回归方法估计沿海11省市的海洋潜在产出,进一步对比分析各省市海洋经济潜力实现和变动情况。研究发现,2006—2019年我国三大海洋经济圈区域差异呈下降态势;其以区域内差异为主;区域内差异的波动大于区域间差异;区域总差异贡献度排名从大到小依次是第二产业、第三产业和第一产业;区域总差异、区域内差异和区域差异的变化均主要来源于集中效应;沿海11省市海洋产出缺口比例曲线可分为类“n”型、类“u”型和类“一”型;2012年以后海洋产出缺口比例的变动幅度相较之前明显减小。研究得到创新海洋经济发展模式、推动海洋领域区域一体化和增强海洋经济发展韧性等相关建议。With the in-depth promotion and implementation of the Marine National Strategy,a correct understanding of the regional differences and potential output levels of the marine economy is conducive to promoting the coordinated development of the ocean economy,realizing the transformation to high-quality ocean economy.Taking the three major marine economic spheres as the basic spatial units and the three marine industries as the basic structural units,the spatial decomposition and structural decomposition of the labor-weighted coefficient of variation method are used to measure the degree of regional differences in China's marine economy from 2006 to 2019.We further decompose the structural,concentration and comprehensive effects of changes in regional differences;the Hamilton regression method is used to estimate the marine potential output of 11 coastal provinces and cities,and the realization and changes of marine economic potential in each province and city are compared and analyzed.It is found that regional differences in China's marine economy shows a declining trend from 2006 to 2019;regional differences in China's marine economy are dominated by intra-regional differences;intra-regional differences fluctuate more than inter-regional differences;the ranking of the contribution to total regional differences is the secondary,tertiary and primary industries;the regional total differences,intra-regional differences and regional differences are mainly due to the concentration effect;the proportional curves of marine output gap in 11 coastal provinces and cities can be divided into class"n",class"u"and class"-";the magnitude of the change in the marine output gap ratio after 2012 is significantly smaller than before.The study has yielded insights on innovative marine economic development models,promoting regional integration in the marine sector and enhancing the resilience of marine economic development.

关 键 词：海洋经济 区域差异 潜在产出 加权变异系数 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]