RCEP对成员国全球价值链参与的影响研究——基于GTAP模拟分析  

The Impact of RCEP on Member Countries'Participation in GVC——A simulation analysis based on GTAP

作　　者：欧定余[1] 易隹慧 OU Ding-yu;YI Zhui-hui(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan,Hunan 411105,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《湘潭大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第3期30-36,共7页Journal of Xiangtan University:Philosophy And Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“新发展格局下中国省级区域的全球价值链测度与实事”(72273121);湖南省教育厅重点项目“东亚区域价值链重构支撑中国经济外循环的机制与对策研究”(21A0098)。

摘　　要：RCEP作为经济体量最大的高标准区域贸易协定,将对现处于逆全球化浪潮下的全球价值链产生影响。基于正式签订的协议文本,运用动态GTAP模拟RCEP的经济效应,并就模拟结果进行全球价值链测算。研究发现,RCEP的长期经济效应大于短期经济效应,降低非关税壁垒将更大幅度地提高其经济效应;RCEP将提高区域内具有比较优势部门的全球价值链参与程度与地位,对区域内经济体参与全球价值链的影响程度大于对区域外经济体的影响程度;但是各经济体产业是否具有比较优势、是否位于全球价值链上游不受RCEP的影响。As the largest high-standard regional trade agreement,RCEP will have an impact on the GVC which is currently faced with the tide of the anti-globalization.Based on the agreement text,this paper analyzes the economic effects of RCEP by using dynamic GTAP,and calculates the GVC.The study has found that the long-term economic effect of RCEP is greater than that of the short-term economy.The reduction of non-tariff barriers will significantly improve the economic effect of RCEP,and the RCEP will enhance the participation and status of GVC sectors with comparative advantages.RCEP will have a greater impact on the GVC participation of member countries than non-regional economies.Whether various sectors have comparative advantages and whether the industries are located in the upstream of the GVC will be not affected by RCEP.

关 键 词：区域全面经济伙伴关系协定 全球价值链 全球贸易分析模型 

分 类 号：F114.46[经济管理—国际贸易]