传染病暴发/流行风险评估指标体系的构建  

Construction of the risk assessment index system for outbreak/epidemic of infectious diseases

作　　者：梁跃红 何舰[1] 周晓昕 杨锐[1] 余蓉[1] LIANG Yue-hong;HE Jian;ZHOU Xiao-xin;YANG Rui;YU Rong(Huaihua Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Huaihua,Hunan 418000,China)

机构地区：[1]怀化市疾病预防控制中心,湖南怀化418000

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2023年第5期621-625,共5页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金(2020JJ8027)。

摘　　要：目的 建立传染病暴发/流行动态风险评估指标体系。方法 根据文献查阅、专家访谈以及头脑风暴的方法获得传染病暴发或流行动态风险评估指标体系的框架,采用德尔菲法(Delphi)进行两轮专家咨询,根据专家反馈的意见进行综合分析,对指标进行必要的增、减、修,最终确定评价的指标体系。结果 运用专家评分法和专家权威系数确立了每一级指标的权重,其中一级指标可能性和严重性的权重系数分别为0.52和0.48;完成两轮函询的共有24名专家,其中24名专家开展过传染病风险评估研究;第一轮Delphi法专家积极系数均为77.14%,第二轮Delphi法专家积极系数为100.00%;两轮专家对熟悉程度评分的协调系数分别为0.63、0.62(P<0.05),重要性评分的协调系数分别为0.59、0.63(P<0.05)。经过两轮专家函询构建了传染病暴发/流行风险评估指标体系,包括2个一级指标、8个二级指标、30个三级指标。结论 本研究通过专家会商法、德尔菲法,构建一套科学、具体、能够普遍适用于大多数传染病暴发/流行的风险评估指标体系。Objective To establish the risk assessment index system for outbreak/epidemic of infectious diseases.Methods The framework of risk assessment index system of epidemic outbreak or epidemic dynamics was obtained by literature review,expert interview and brainstorming.Delphi method was used to carry out two rounds of expert consultation.According to the feedback of experts,we conducted a comprehensive analysis to add,reduce and modify the indexes,and finally determined the evaluation index system.Results Expert scoring method and expert authority coefficient were used to determine the weight of each level of indexes,and the weight coefficients of possibility and severity of indexes at the first level were 0.52 and 0.48,respectively.There were 24 experts completed two rounds of correspondence,23 of whom had implemented risk assessment studies on infectious diseases.The positive coefficients of experts in the first and second rounds based on Delphi method were 77.14%and 100%,respectively.The coordination coefficients of familiarity score of experts in the first and second rounds were 0.63 and 0.62,respectively(P<0.05),and the coordination coefficients of importance score were 0.59 and 0.63,respectively(P<0.05).After two rounds of expert letter consultation,an index system for risk assessment of infectious disease outbreak/epidemic was established,including 2 first-level indexes,8 second-level indexes and 30 third-level indexes.Conclusion This study constructed a set of scientific,specific and universally applicable risk assessment index system for most infectious disease outbreaks/epidemics through expert consultation method and Delphi method.

关 键 词：德尔菲法(Delphi) 传染病暴发/流行 评价指标体系 风险评估 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]