2022年广西极端“龙舟水”暴雨过程环境场特征分析  

Analysis of environmental field characteristics of an extreme dragon-boat precipitation process in Guangxi in 2022

作　　者：刘国忠 覃月凤 覃卫坚[2] 陈伟斌 翟舒楠 Liu Guozhong;Qin Yuefeng;Qin Weijian;Chen Weibin;Zhai Shunan(Guangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanning 530022,China;Guangxi Climate Center,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁530022 [2]广西壮族自治区气候中心,南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2023年第1期7-13,共7页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSY011);中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2023-095);广西气象科研计划重点项目(桂气科2017Z01);广西气象科研计划创新平台专项(BNCO-N202304);广西极端暴雨形成机理及预报技术研究创新团队项目。

摘　　要：利用实况、ERA5再分析资料对2022年广西极端“龙舟水”最强暴雨过程降雨与洪峰及环境场进行分析。结果表明:(1)近30a广西大洪水年“龙舟水”最强暴雨过程大多持续5~6d,强降雨范围、中心位置及强度与洪峰相关,洪峰出现在过程结束当日或后一日。(2)2022年过程大尺度环流背景中高纬天气形势为两槽一脊型,东槽偏弱,冷空气势力偏北,中低层大气异常深厚急流及高能、高湿,对流抑制有效位能小及抬升凝结高度低,是典型暖区暴雨。近30a过程大尺度环流背景中高纬为两槽一脊型或纬向型两类,是锋面、暖区或混合型暴雨。(3)把握“龙舟水”最强暴雨过程环境场及降雨特征是大洪水预报的关键着眼点之一。相近环境场条件下,强降雨差异是预报难点,需进一步研究。This paper analyzes the rainfall,flood peak and environmental fields of the extreme dragon-boat precipitation process in Guangxi in 2022 by using the observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data.The results show that:(1)The most intense dragon-boat precipitation in the last 30 year flood year last for 5 to 6 days,and the range,center location and intensity of heavy rainfall are related to the flood peak,which occurs on the day or the day after the end of the process.(2)The large-scale circulation background of the process in 2022 is of two troughs and one ridge in the middle and high latitudes,and the eastern trough is weak,resulting in the northerly cold air force.There are unusually strong jets in the middle and lower atmosphere,and high-energy,high humidity,small convection inhibition,and low lifting condensation level,which is a typical warn sector rainstorm.In the past 30 years,the large-scale circulation background of the process is divided into two types,which are two troughs and one ridge in the middle and high latitudes or zonal type.It is the frontal,warm or mixed rainstorm.(3)One of the key points for large flood forecasting is to grasp the environmental field and rainfall characteristics of the strongest process of dragon-boat precipitation.Under similar environmental backgrounds,the difference in heavy rainfall is a difficult point for forecasting and needs further study.

关 键 词：“龙舟水” 极端暴雨 大尺度环流背景 物理量特征 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]