2022年南宁市“龙舟水”暴雨期间模式对比及订正技巧  

Comparative Analysis of numerical models and revision techniques for the rainstorms in Nanning during the dragon-boat precipitation period in 2022

作　　者：梁岱云 黄丹萍 苏兆达 Liang Daiyun;Huang Danping;Su Zaoda(Nanning Meteorological Bureau,Nanning 530029,China)

机构地区：[1]南宁市气象局,南宁530029

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2023年第1期51-56,共6页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西气象科研计划项目“首府南宁极端降水预报技术及应对措施研究”(桂气科2022M13)。

摘　　要：2022年广西出现1960年以来最强“龙舟水”,但同期南宁市降雨分布不均,暴雨预报空漏报较多。因此,有必要对2022年“龙舟水”期间南宁市暴雨过程的数值模式与实况降水进行对比分析,总结各模式对“龙舟水”暴雨的预报能力;并通过分析雷达回波、物理量等资料以提高预报员订正技巧。结果表明,中尺度模式对暖区或沿海地形的暴雨有一定预报能力,但需注意消空;南宁暴雨漏报的原因主要是忽视了触发机制、高低层系统相互作用和降雨发生机制,空报的原因主要与数值预报的影响系统预报偏差有关;“龙舟水”期间南宁暴雨的雷达回波路径主要有四种,预判回波源地和移动路径对暴雨落区的短期预报有一定的帮助;“龙舟水”期间南宁市上空不稳定能量及水汽条件较好,应加强触发机制的分析。In 2022,the strongest dragon-boat precipitation since 1960 occurred in Guangxi,but the rainfall distribution in Nanning was uneven,and there were many missed reports in the rainstorm forecast.Therefore,it is necessary to compare and analyze the numerical models and the actual precipitation of this heavy rainfall process to summarize the forecasting ability of each model for the heavy rainfall in Nanning City during the dragon-boat rainy period in 2022.And the information on radar echoes and physical quantities are also analyzed to improve the forecasters'revision skills.The results show that the mesoscale model has a certain forecast ability for a rainstorm in warm regions or coastal topography,but it stll needs to pay attention to the nulling.The main reasons for the un-reported rainstorm forecast in Nanning are mainly the neglect of the triggering mechanism,interactions between high-level and low-level systems and the rainstorm occurrence mechanism,while the reason for the empty forecast of a rainstorm is mainly related to the biased of the impact system forecast of the numerical models.Besides,there are four main radar echo paths of a rainstorm in Nanning during the dragon-boat rainy period.Predicting the source and moving path of the radar echo is helpful for the short-term forecasting of the rainfall area.The unstable energy and water vapor conditions over Nanning City are good during the dragon-boat rainy period,hence the analysis of the triggering mechanism should be strengthened.

关 键 词：“龙舟水” 暴雨预报 数值模式对比 订正技巧 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]