基于PDA-IDA分解法的碳强度影响因素研究  

Research on Influencing Factors of Carbon Intensity Based on PDA-IDA Decomposition Method

作　　者：安庆贤[1] 邹雨晴 熊贝贝 AN Qingxian;ZOU Yuqing;XIONG Beibei(Business School,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China;School of Business Administration,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2023年第4期140-146,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自科基金面上项目(72171238);国家自科基金青年项目(72001075);湖南省自科优青项目(2021JJ20072);湖南省荷尖创新人才工程项目(2022RC1242)。

摘　　要：探索影响碳强度变化的因素对于制定科学的减排措施、实现减排目标具有重要意义。本文基于生产理论分解法和指数分解法提出了一种新的碳强度变化分解方法,该方法除了提供能源结构、经济产出结构等因素对碳强度的影响信息外,还提供了能源、经济产出、CO_(2)排放的技术因素对碳强度的影响信息。此外,本文构建了一种考虑物质守恒原则的效率测量方法,以测量能源、经济产出、CO_(2)排放的技术效率,从而科学量化技术因素对碳强度的影响。最后,本文使用2009年至2017年间中国交通运输行业的面板数据,从国家和省级层面来探究交通运输行业碳强度变化的影响因素。实证结果表明,能源技术进步和CO_(2)技术进步是降低碳强度的关键因素,而潜在的碳排放系数是阻碍碳强度降低的主要因素。As the top carbon dioxide(CO 2)emitter,China has drawn global attention for its accelerated growth of CO 2 emissions in the past few decades,and international effort to stabilize the global climate depend greatly on the carbon emissions footprint of China.Recently,government officials,industry entrepreneurs and academic researchers have acknowledged that addressing climate change requires a balance between economic development and environmental sustainability.Moreover,this balance requirement has made the aggregate carbon emissions intensity(CEI),defined as CO 2 emissions per unit of gross domestic production,has been used to characterize the overall performance of climate change mitigation.In order to reduce CO_(2) emissions,China promised to cut CEI by 60%~65%by 2030 compared with the 2005 level.Furthermore,the Chinese government aimed to peak CO_(2) emissions no later than 2030 and increased the proportion of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20%by 2030.In order to achieve these goals,we need to know what factors are driving the CEI change and their relative importance.Therefore,how to effectively decompose the driving factors of CEI in China has been an urgent problem.In this study,a decomposition method of CEI is proposed,which is based on the production-theoretical decomposition method and index decomposition method.The CEI change can be decomposed into eleven driving factors in our approach,including energy mix change,potential economicoutput structure change,potential energy intensity change,potential carbon emission coefficient change,economic output gap change,technical efficiency and technological change of economic output,technical efficiency and technological change of CO_(2),technical efficiency and technological change of energy inputs.In addition,an efficiency measurement method that considers the materials balance principle is proposed to measure the technical efficiency of energy,economic output and CO_(2),which can scientifically quantify the impact of technical factors on CEI.B

关 键 词：碳强度 生产理论分解法 指数分解法 物质守恒原则 交通运输行业 

分 类 号：C931.1[经济管理—管理学]