测风塔风速的长程持续性特征研究  

Research on Long-Range Persistence of Tower Wind Speed Based on DFA Method

作　　者：李庆雷 陈丽凡 张志森[1] 刘卫平[2] LI Qinglei;CHEN Lifan;ZHANG Zhisen;LIU Weiping(National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 10008l;Xinjiang Meteorological Information Center,Urumqi 830002)

机构地区：[1]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [2]新疆气象信息中心,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《气象科技》2023年第2期262-268,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家气象科技创新工程(CMAGGTD003-5);新疆气象科技发展基金重点项目(ZD202304);第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2021xjkk1300)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于中国陆上风能资源专业观测网提供的测风塔风速资料,本文利用去趋势波动分析(Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, DFA)方法,研究了103座测风塔在不同高度处观测的、不同分辨率的风速时间序列的长程持续性特征。结果表明:(1)同一测风塔观测的不同高度处的风速时间序列,存在一致的标度行为,与数据时间分辨率无关;(2)对于6 h平均风速序列而言,103座测风塔观测风速的DFA指数α数值范围基本在0.55~0.91之间,都表现出较强的长程持续性,区域特征不明显;(3)对于10 min平均风速序列,DFA标度指数曲线存在弯折,以24 h尺度为界,呈现出2个明显的独立标度区间:在较大的时间尺度上,标度指数α的数值大小为0.80,而在较小的时间尺度上,α的数值大小约为1.38。Based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA)method,this paper focuses on the longrange correlation characteristics of wind speed time series observed by 103 wind measuring towers.The results show that:(1)The wind speed time series at different heights have almost consistent scale behaviour,regardless of the resolution.(2)For the 6-hour average wind speed series,the DFA indexαhas a numerical range basically of 0.55 to 0.91 for all 103 wind towers,showing strong long-range persistence.(3)For the 10-minute average wind speed series,taking the 24-hour scale as the boundary,the DFA curve shows two obvious independent scaling intervals:on the larger time scale,the numerical size of scaling indexαis 0.80,whileαis about 1.38 on the smaller time scale.This study quantifies the long-range persistence characteristics of wind speed using the nonlinear time series analysis method.It reveals the physical mechanism behind it,which is of great significance for building wind speed models and accurately predicting wind speed.

关 键 词：风速 长程持续性 去趋势波动分析 标度一致性 测风塔 

分 类 号：P412.166[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]