气候变化视角下中国小麦生产布局演变及生产力预测  

Wheat Pattern Evolution and Productivity Prediction in China from the Perspective of Climate Change

作　　者：陈佩[1] 张为付[2] CHEN Pei;ZHANG Weifu(Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210003,China;School of International Economics and Trade,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院,江苏南京210003 [2]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2023年第2期1-10,共10页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“信息技术变革赋能中国对外贸易高质量发展的机制与路径研究”(21BJY052);江苏省社会科学基金重大项目“江苏以科技创新驱动产业链供应链优化升级研究”(21ZD001);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目“粮食区域公共品牌会替代企业私人质量信息传递吗?——以大米为例”(KYCX22_1680)。

摘　　要：全球性气候变化背景下,研究小麦生产布局演变规律和驱动因素,有利于资源的合理配置,从而保障国家粮食安全。基于1978—2019年中国29个小麦生产省份的面板数据,分析小麦种植面积、产量的区域分布特征及其重心移动轨迹;运用空间杜宾模型,分析气候变化对中国小麦生产重心变迁的影响;结合IPCC第六次气候报告,进一步利用反事实分析方法,预测气候变化对小麦生产的影响。研究得出:小麦生产重心总体上向东南方向演进;日照时数正向促进了小麦生产重心向东南方向演进,气温和降雨量对小麦生产重心布局变迁具有显著负向作用;研究期内气候变化对小麦的综合减产效应为2.68%,未来气候变化将导致中国小麦减产最大达18.14%。应处理好小麦生产重心南移与种植带北移的矛盾,加强培育小麦耐热品种,并尽早采取应对气候变化的措施,减轻气候变化对小麦生产的负面影响。Given the most dramatic climate change in a century,studying the evolution of law and the factors driving the spatial distribution of wheat production is conducive to the rational allocation of resources and ensuring national food security.Based on the data from 29 wheat-producing provinces from 1978 to 2019,this paper analyzes the regional distribution of wheat planting areas,their yield,and the shifting center of gravity of wheat production in China.The Spatial Dubin Model was used to analyze the impact of climate change on the shifting center of wheat production in China.A counterfactual framework was also constructed to predict the impact of climate change on wheat production.The results show that the center of wheat production moved toward the southeast.Further,sunshine duration positively promoted this shift,and temperature and rainfall had significant negative effects on the distribution of wheat production and its center of gravity.The comprehensive yield-reducing effect of climate change on wheat during the study period was 2.68%,and the maximum yield reduction of Chinese wheat due to climate change is projected to reach 18.14%.The negative impact of climate change on wheat production can be mitigated by dealing with the contradiction between the southward shift of the center of wheat production and the northward shift of the planting belt,strengthening the cultivation of heat-resistant wheat varieties,and taking measures to cope with climate change.

关 键 词：生产重心 气候变化 空间杜宾模型 反事实分析 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]