美联储货币政策切换、人民币互换与国际资本市场稳定  

Federal Reserve Policy Switch, RMB Swap Agreements and International Capital Markets Stability

作　　者：俞彬[1] 蔡凯星 王维安[1] 钱美芬 YU Bin;CAI Kaixing;WANG Wei'an;QIAN Meifen(Zhejiang University,310058)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,310058 [2]浙江大学管理学院,310058

出　　处：《财贸经济》2023年第5期38-54,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“智能信息化时代下股票新交易方式、异常换手率与流动性风险研究”(18BJY241)。

摘　　要：2008年金融危机后,美联储货币政策频繁切换,引发全球金融市场动荡,世界各国如何化解“以邻为壑”的货币政策冲击,是一个长期存在又亟待解决的问题。作为合作共赢的倡导者和践行者,到2020年,中国人民银行已与40个国家和地区签订了货币互换协议,致力于构建新型互利合作关系,为破解世界面临的共同难题贡献中国方案。对此,本文基于全球66个经济体2009—2019年的面板数据,考察人民币互换对美联储货币政策国际溢出效应是否存在反向调节作用。结果表明,人民币互换协议的存在可以有效缓解美联储货币政策切换对其他国家跨境资本流动的冲击。进一步机制检验发现,人民币互换协议通过汇率和贸易渠道发挥调节作用。这些结论表明,以人民币互换协议为代表的多边合作有助于国际资本市场稳定,为完善全球金融治理体系贡献了中国智慧和力量。Following the 2008 financial crisis,the US Federal Reserve frequently switched its monetary policies,and its monetary easing or tightening policy would cause financial turbulence in emerging markets and developing countries,and even trigger financial crises when the situation was severe.Given the interdependence among countries worldwide,it is sensible for policymakers to embrace the idea of good neighborliness and friendship,coordinate and cooperate with each other to cope with the increasingly complex and uncertain economic environment.As an advocate and practitioner of the vision of a“community with a shared future for mankind”,China,as a responsible major country,is promoting international financial cooperation and actively participating in the reform of global financial governance system.As of the end of 2020,the People's Bank of China had signed currency swap agreements with 40 countries and regions,worth over 3.99 trillion yuan,forming the world's largest circle of currency swaps.The development of RMB swaps is of great significance in compensating for the international liquidity tightness caused by the US monetary tightening policy,strengthening regional financial cooperation,and promoting the diversification of the international monetary system and the stable development of global finance.However,existing literature focuses more on the impact of dollar swaps,and research results have shown that dollar swaps have no obvious effect on mitigating the spillover effects of monetary policies from various countries worldwide.Few studies have examined the RMB swap arrangement,which involves more emerging markets and has more signatory countries and is on a larger scale.Domestic scholars have mainly analyzed the important significance of the Belt and Road Initiative and the concept of a“community with a shared future for mankind”for maintaining the stability of the international financial market and promoting the reform of global financial governance system only from a theoretical perspective.There is sti

关 键 词：货币政策切换 人民币互换 资本市场 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学] F832