易地扶贫搬迁对农户非农就业的影响——基于内生转换Probit模型  

Impact of Poverty Alleviation Relocation on Rural Household’s Off-farm Employment:Based on the Endogenous Switching Probit Model

作　　者：时鹏 余劲[2] SHI Peng;YU Jin

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学马克思主义学院,西安710000 [2]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2023年第4期101-120,共20页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“内生动力视角下产业发展与农户就近就地就业机制研究——以乡村振兴重点帮扶县易地搬迁政策为例”(编号:72274157);陕西省哲学社会科学研究专项“陕西易地扶贫搬迁富民效应动态评估及接续帮扶政策优化研究”(编号:2023QN0043);国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目(编号:201906300041);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(编号:XJSJ23064)。

摘　　要：本文基于陕南三市1712个农户调查数据,采用内生转换Probit模型,构建农户搬迁决策和非农就业的联立方程,从非农就业劳动参与和非农就业收入两个角度实证分析搬迁对农户非农就业的影响,进一步提出并检验其影响机理。结果表明,第一,生存的压力、搬迁的机会成本和资本禀赋是影响农户搬迁决策的重要因素,搬迁具有明显的农户“自选择”特征。第二,基于反事实假设,搬迁农户若不搬迁,非农就业劳动参与和非农就业收入将分别下降5%和1.53%,而非搬迁农户若搬迁,非农就业劳动参与和非农就业收入将分别提高23.49%和19.47%,搬迁对农户非农就业劳动参与的影响大于对非农就业收入的影响;异质性分析表明,分散安置对农户非农就业的影响大于集中安置,搬迁对新生代农户非农就业的影响大于老一代农户。第三,搬迁通过空间位置的重置效应、培训机会的获得效应、发展环境的改善效应以及农户内生发展动力的提升效应四个渠道促进了搬迁农户的非农就业。综上,今后要在确保搬迁农户就业数量基础上进一步提升就业质量,提高就业市场的包容性以重点解决老一代搬迁农户的非农就业问题,集中安置区既要重视当地就业机会的培育也应组织推动搬迁农户的劳务输出。应通过接续投资、精准培训及农户发展内生动力培育尽快促进搬迁农户实现非农就业,但同时也应关注未迁出农户的发展问题。Based on the survey data of 1712 rural households in three cities in southern Shaanxi Province,this paper uses the endogenous switching probit model to construct the simultaneous equations which is comprised of the poverty alleviation relocation(PAR)decision-making equation and off-farm employment determination equation.The impact of PAR on off-farm employment is analyzed from both the perspectives of off-farm employment participation and off-farm employment income,and further its impact mechanism is proposed and tested.The results show that,first,the pressure of survival,opportunity cost of the relocation and farmer's capital endowment are the important factors influencing farmer's relocation decision-making,meaning that PAR has obvious characteristics of “self-selection”.Second,based on the counterfactual hypothesis,if the relocated farmers had not relocated,the off-farm employment participation and off-farm employment income would decrease by 5% and 1.53% respectively,while if the non-relocated farmers had relocated,the off-farm employment participation and off-farm employment income would increase by 23.49% and 19.47% respectively.The impact of PAR on the off-farm employment participation is greater than that on the off-farm employment income.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the scattered resettlement has greater impact on the farmer's off-farm employment than the centralized resettlement and the PAR has greater impact on the farmer's off-farm employment for the new generation than for the old generation.Third,the PAR promotes the off-farm employment through four channels:resetting effect of spatial position,the acquisition effect of training opportunities,the improvement effect of development environment,and the promotion effect of endogenous development motives.Based on the above results,the quality of relocated farmer's off-farm employment should be improved on the basis of ensuring the quantity.The inclusiveness of the employment market should be improved to solve the off-farm employment issue fo

关 键 词：易地扶贫搬迁 非农就业 自选择 中国陕南 内生转换Probit模型 

分 类 号：D632.4[政治法律—政治学] F323.8[政治法律—中外政治制度] F249.2[经济管理—产业经济]